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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi for
Saturday, December 22, 2012

The Bottom Line for the La Sal and Abajo Mountains for the first weekend of winter will be an Avalanche Danger of Moderate for persistent slabs on NW-N-NE-E-SE aspects. Take the opportunity to burn a mental image of where recent natural activity has occurred, then perform a few stability tests to verify that YES the back country is still a thin, early season unstable continental snow structure.

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Weather and Snow

Welcome to the Winter Season of 2012-2013! With the longest night of the year recently behind us, we can look forward towards a new dawn of powder, frozen lakes, groomed trails and snow in the forecast.

San Juan County buffed the Upper Two Mile Road and the road to the Geyser Pass Winter TH. For those looking to usher winter into SE Utah enjoying one of their favorite pursuits, it is time to embrace snow sports while your favorite mountain bike trail or test piece is thawing out in the desert.

LUNA has been laying down some of the finest corduroy available within 100 miles, the tracks are in!

There is over 30" of snow in Gold Basin and 17" at Camp Jackson in the Abajos. The backcountry has enough snow to slide but be careful...it is the first weekend of winter and those rocks and logs are hiding just under the surface in your favorite mid-winter powder shot.

So get your legs back underneath ya, go for a long tour and send us some more observations!

If you are interested in finding out the current weather, go to our La Sal and Abajo Mountain Weather Page to assist you with nowcasting.

Recent Avalanches

The back country is opening up and there has been plenty of avalanche activity and snow stratigraphy to talk about. Check out these recent observations from some tours in the La Sals.

Pre-Laurel Ridge

Colorado Bowl, Mt. Mellenthin

Mt. Mellenthin snow pack

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Avalanche Problem #1
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I personally do not like the combination of structure, strength and energy right now in the La Sals. Saturday's tour will hopefully look into some new aspects at and above tree-line to see how widespread this problem really is.

On Northwest-North-Northeast slopes at and above tree line, moderate test results with sudden planar shears plus two layers of upside down wedding cake does not make me confident on these aspects, in fact I'm off the throttle completely. Recent avalanche activity has been naturally caused and the fact that shooting cracks and collapsing continue to be the norm in the back country tells me that there's plenty of bullets in the gun that you would have to dodge JUST for a couple dozen turns of potential bliss, before of course running into a thin, rocky apron.

Get up in the high county, but limit your objectives to the safest descents.

Additional Information

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. West southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Snow. High near 24. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Monday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 10. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are have been an important partner to the forecast office in Moab for over 20 years.

Go to their website to donate. They help with purchasing weather instrumentation, provide field observers and upkeep 3 weather stations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Thanks!

The Utah Avalanche Center-Moab will be holding a Basic Avalanche Awareness talk on Friday, January 18th at 6:30 pm at the Grand County Library. The following day, January 19th, there will be an avalanche rescue clinic at the Geyser Pass TH.

On February 1st through the 3rd, the UAC-Moab is hosting a Level I AIARE Avalanche Course. Interested? Call Max Forgensi at his office phone (435-636-3355) for more details and to sign up.

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