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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Max Forgensi
Issued by Max Forgensi for
Wednesday, December 19, 2012

The Bottom Line for today will be an Avalanche Danger of Considerable for the La Sal and Abajo Mountains on steep slopes greater than 32 degrees on NW-N-NE-E aspects for wind and persistent slabs. The rest of the forecast area will have an Avalanche Danger of Moderate.

Be weary of the thin snow pack as well. Ground Hazards will play into the equation as well for those venturing into the back country.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements

UPDATE! LUNA groomed into Gold Basin Wednesday, 12/19. There's a tree down towards Geyser Pass.

Look for an Avalanche Observation tomorrow afternoon.

Weather and Snow

A very short yet strong winter storm passed through southeast Utah overnight bringing snow to the La Sal and Abajo mountain ranges and all of greater Canyonlands. Winter has arrived just before the solstice.

The Gold Basin study plot received 8" (20 cm) of snow, commensurate with storm totals on the Grand Mesa and Northern San Juans. The Geyser Pass Winter TH received 0.6" of H20, perhaps 6" of snow with a total depth at the TH of 17". The Abajo Mountains were the winner. 1.0" of H20 fell out of the sky with an additional 12 " of snow .

Winds were cranking out of the SSE-WSW before the brunt of the snow fell averaging in the mid-30's for 10 hours with gusts into the 50's up on Pre-Laurel Peak. As the storm progressed the winds subsided and the winds veered to the northwest. This storm is well past us now, leaving in its wake cold temperatures. It is currently 10 degrees in Gold Basin

San Juan County plowed the roads to all trail heads yesterday and just in time for the next storm. Thank you San Juan County! They will have their hands busy for the remainder of the week and will be back to the mountains maybe by Friday and could be as long as next Monday. When they do, please be respectful. They are doing an incredible job. Please be patient. If you get behind them, just enjoy the newly plowed road and DO NOT PASS unless waived by.

LUNA will be grooming the entire track for this weekend.

If you are interested in finding out the current weather, go to our La Sal and Abajo Mountain Weather Page to assist you with nowcasting.

Recent Avalanches

On Monday and Tuesday's tour up into the high country, there was a lack of widespread natural avalanche activity from last weekend's storm. What we did note was widespread wind loading, shooting cracks and collapsing. Our relatively shallow snow pack did not have enough coverage to produce those big avalanches we love to protect our tours into alpine cirques.

With another 0.6" of H20 and vigorous winds, I feel we may have had a couple more slide paths rip out. We shall see when the skies clear

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Sensitive wind slabs on NW-N-NE-E aspects will be the biggest concern for today both in the top-loaded and cross-loaded category. It avalanche paths did not slide during the storm, those wind pillows on the northerly leeward sides of slopes and ridges will be very sensitive to a snowmobiler and skier's weight for the next 24 hours.

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Persistent slabs will be a pesky problem prevalent where early season snow has been sitting since the beginning of December. Snow depths are shallow enough for a human trigger to initiate last weekend's storm snow (the persistent slab now) on the early season mix of facets and crusts.

Additional Information

Today: Snow, mainly before 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 14. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 5. North northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 26. North wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 17. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday: Sunny, with a high near 31. South wind around 5 mph.

General Announcements

The Friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center are have been an important partner to the forecast office in Moab for over 20 years.

Go to their website to donate. They help with purchasing weather instrumentation, provide field observers and upkeep 3 weather stations in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Thanks!

The Utah Avalanche Center will be holding a Basic Avalanche Awareness talk on Friday, January 18th at 6:30 pm at the Grand County Library. The following day, January 19th, there will be an avalanche rescue clinic at the Geyser Pass TH.

On February 1st through the 3rd, the UAC-Moab is hosting a Level I AIARE Avalanche Course. Interested? Call Max Forgensi at his office phone (435-636-3355) for more details and to sign up.

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