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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed for
Monday, December 17, 2012

There is a CONSIDERABLE (or level 3) danger in the backcountry, and triggered wind slab avalanches are likely on steep drifted upper and mid elevation slopes. There are also areas with poor snow structure and increasing potential for larger, more dangerous deep slab avalanches, failing on buried persistent weak layers, up to around 3-feet-deep. Avalanches might be triggered remotely from a distance or below. Expect the danger to continue to rise in the backcountry today and tonight, with continuing snowfall and strong westerly wind . Natural avalanches will become increasingly possible. Avoid and stay out from under steep slopes with significant accumulations of drifted new snow. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully , and make conservative decisions regarding your route selection. ..

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Weather and Snow

Expect more "full-on" weather in the mountains today, with heavy snow, strengthening wind, warmer temperatures and increasing avalanche danger. The Tony Grove Snotel reports 13 inches of accumulation yesterday and overnight containing 1.3 inches of water equivalent. There's 47 inches of total snow, 89% of normal for the date, and it's 25 degrees at 8400' this morning. Southwest winds are cranking out hourly averages in the mid twenties at Campbell Scientific's 9700' mountain top Logan Peak weather station, with a gust earlier this morning of almost 60 mph, and it's 20 degrees .

Recent Avalanches

No avalanches were reported over the weekend in the Logan Area...

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Triggered wind slab and storm snow avalanches are likely , and continuing snowfall and strong southwest winds will cause the avalanche danger to rise further today and tonight.. Wind slabs exist and will continue to form on the lee sides of major ridgelines and in and around terrain features like gullies, scoops, sub-ridges, cliff bands, and rock outcroppings.. Continued heavy snowfall and sustained winds today and tonight will cause the danger to increase and become more widespread, with natural avalanches a possibility, especially during periods with high precipitation intensity or rapidly accumulating heavy snowfall .. You should avoid and stay out from under steep drifted slopes today. Winds slabs consisting of stiffer drifted snow will appear smooth, rounded, and maybe chalky, and they often sound hollow or drum-like when you walk around on them.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

There are areas with poor snow structure where you could trigger dangerous deep slab avalanches releasing on buried persistent weak layers. I've been observing weak layers consisting of small sugary grains called faceted snow across the zone, with the weakest in areas with relatively shallow snow. The rapid load from our current storm could cause these layers to become activated, and dangerous deep slab avalanches, up to around 3-feet-deep will become increasingly possible...The most suspect slopes are at upper elevations and facing north through east, but significant loading might cause the danger to become more widespread. Pay close attention to red flags like audible collapsing and cracking, be willing to reevaluate or turn back, and avoid steep slopes with significant accumulations of drifted snow.

Additional Information

The National Weather Service has continued a Winter Storm Warning through Wednesday morning. Snowfall will continue today and intensify tonight, with 8 to 16 inches forecast by tomorrow morning at upper elevations in the Bear River Range. West-southwest winds will intensify today and continue tonight, with gusts well over 60 mph possible at the mountaintop level. Temperatures in the mountains will be fairly mild today, with highs in the upper twenties.. Snow will continue into tomorrow morning, winds will shift around from the north and diminish, and temperatures will drop into the single digits tomorrow, with lows approaching zero tomorrow night.

Check out the Logan Mountain Weather page...

General Announcements

Discount lift tickets are in and it would be a good day for lift serviced riding! Go to http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center to get tickets from our partners at Alta, Beaver Mountain, Brighton, Canyons, Deer Valley, Park City, Powder Mountain, Snowbasin, Snowbird, Solitude, Sundance, and Wolf Mountain. All proceeds benefit the Utah Avalanche Center.

Deals on donated gear to benefit the UAC: Check out the Ebay charity auction w/ splitboards from Chimera, Never Summer, & Voile, skis from BD, Mtn Approach folding ski/pack kit, a Pieps beacon, Gecko Skins, Scarpa AT boots, & Fritschi brakes. CLICK HERE!!

Remember your information can save lives. If you see or trigger an avalanche in the backcountry or anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or email by clicking HERE. In the Logan Area you can contact Toby Weed directly at 435-757-7578.

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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