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Forecast for the Ogden Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Monday, December 17, 2012

A full CONSIDERABLE danger exists in the backcountry today. Natural avalanching is possible, human triggered slides - even slides triggered at a distance - are probable. With both remotes and naturals on tap, it'll be even more critical to pay attention to what - and who - is above or below you. Collapsing and cracking I suspect will be the rule and not the exception today. Very conservative route choices are key. Remember that terrain and moderate slope angles are the great equalizer. If in doubt, head to one of our world class mountain resorts today.

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Considerable
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Special Announcements

UDOT Little Cottonwood has backcountry closures in effect from Lisa Falls through Grizzly Gulch through 8:30am this morning.

Discount lift tickets are in! With a wild week of weather and backcountry avalanches in the forecast, heading to one of our world class resorts is a great idea. Go to http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center to get tickets from our partners at Alta, Beaver Mountain, Brighton, Canyons, Deer Valley, Park City, Powder Mountain, Snowbasin, Snowbird, Solitude, Sundance, and Wolf Mountain. All proceeds benefit the Utah Avalanche Center. A big thanks to the Utah mountain resorts - we couldn't do it without your partnership.

Weather and Snow

Count your lucky stars. The skiing and riding conditions have been phenomenal over the past couple of days...but the snow's gonna be blown into the Uinta Basin by day's end. Currently it's still lightly snowing, temps are in the upper teens and low 20s, and the westerly to southwesterly winds are blowing 20mph with gusts to 35. Storm totals now sit at 20-30" in the Cottonwoods, 12-16" in the Park City and Ogden mountains, and 16-24" in the Provo mountains.

With the jet stream overhead today, winds are expected to blow from the west at 50-60 mph with gusts to 80. Hold on to your hat.

Recent Avalanches

Yesterday was rife with longer running sluffs and shallow softs slabs triggered along the upper elevations. One sluff cascading from above did pull out a 2' deep 80' wide pocket below Pioneer Peak in the Brighton periphery. Collapsing within the mid pack facet/crust horror show continues to be noted.

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Many areas have just lacked sufficient weight and loading to trip the trigger on the weak snow and crusts formed the first week of the month. Much of the storm snow has been of the 5-7% champagne variety..but today's winds and few inches of higher density snow should wreak havoc with what I'd term our conditionally unstable snowpack. Snowfall aside, with the drifting of snow I expect to see a few natural releases like a couple feet deep in terrain overloaded by the blowing and drifting of snow. Collapsing will be more prevalent, and remotely triggered slides will become likely.

A word regarding confidence: winds this strong certainly destroy the snow quality...but loading patterns and sublimation can be erratic at best. Uncertainty should lead to conservative route selection today.

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Wind drifts will be all over the place today and - due to sheer expected wind speeds - not confined to the usual loading patterns. I expect plenty of cross-loading into gullies along the lee of sub-ridges, drifts found half-way down the slope, cracking and collapsing of drifts even at the mid to low elevations. With so much snow to blow around, drifts may be up to 3-4' deep and well-intentioned ski and slope cuts may be way more than you bargained for.

See confidence note in the Persistent slab box above....

Additional Information

We'll see continued snowfall today in the 4-8" range, but this may be difficult to guage with all the blowing and drifting snow. Winds, already on the upswing, should reach 50-60 mph with gusts to 80+. Temps will be in the low 20s at 10,000' and the mid to upper 20s at 8000'. A good cold front arrives tonight which should provide an additional foot of snow through tomorrow. Temps dive back to the single digits. Weak ridging follows for mid week with perhaps another storm for Christmas Eve.

General Announcements

Go to http://www.backcountry.com/utah-avalanche-center to get tickets from our partners at Ala, Beaver Mountain, Brighton, Canyons, Deer Valley, Park City, Powder Mountain, Snowbasin, Snowbird, Solitude, Sundance, and Wolf Mountain. All proceeds benefit the Utah Avalanche Center.

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033), Canyons Resort Dispatch (435-615-3322)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Powder Mountain Ski Patrol Dispatch (801-745-3773 ex 123)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Twitter Updates for your mobile phone - DETAILS

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory bysubmitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

Donate to your favorite non-profit –The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The UAC depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.

For a print version of this advisory click HERE.

This advisory is produced by the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. Specific terrain and route finding decisions should always be based on skills learned in a field-based avalanche class.

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