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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Sunday morning, December 16, 2012

Expect the avalanche danger to rise with heavy snowfall and strong southwest winds today. Currently there is a MODERATE danger in the backcountry, but it will rapidly rise to CONSIDERABLE, and triggered storm snow and wind slab avalanches will become likely on steep upper and mid elevation elevation slopes. There are also areas with poor snow structure and an increasing potential for larger, more dangerous deep slab avalanches up to around 3-feet-deep. Evaluate the snow and terrain carefully , and make conservative decisions regarding your route selection. Avoid and stay out from under steep slopes with significant accumulations of new and/or drifted snow. Expect the danger to continue to rise in the backcountry, with continuing snowfall and strengthening wind tonight and tomorrow. Natural avalanches will become increasingly possible....

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Avalanche Watch
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW ARE CREATING DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS WITH BOTH HUMAN TRIGGERED AND NATURAL AVALANCHES POSSIBLE. NEW SNOW IS OVERLOADING PREEXISTING WEAK LAYERS IN A VERY COMPLEX SNOWPACK. THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO HIGH DANGER.
Weather and Snow

It's a whole new game out there, starting today. Expect full-on weather in the mountains today, with heavy snow, strengthening wind and increasing avalanche danger. The Tony Grove Snotel reports 2 inches of accumulation overnight and 35 inches of total snow, 78% of normal for the date, and it's 22 degrees at 8400' this morning. The wind is increasing from the southwest on Logan Peak, already gusting around 40 mph, and it's 17 degrees at Campbell Scientific's 9700' mountain top weather station.

Recent Avalanches

I received a vague report of a wind slab avalanche off Cornice Ridge earlier in the week and visible on Thursday... No other avalanches were reported this week.

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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

Forecast heavy snowfall and strong southwest wind will cause the avalanche danger to rise significantly today and tonight.. Developing wind slabs and fresh soft slabs will present the most obvious problem, and triggered avalanches will become likely as the new snow rapidly piles up on steep slopes this afternoon. Wind slabs will form rapidly on the lee sides of major ridgelines and in and around terrain features like gullies, scoops, sub-ridges, cliff bands, and rock outcroppings.. Avoid smooth, chalky looking, and hollow sounding drifts on steep slopes... Continued heavy snowfall and even stronger winds tonight will cause the danger to increase and become more widespread, with overnight natural avalanches a real possibility. You should avoid and stay out from under steep drifted slopes with significant deposits of new snow, especially during periods with high precipitation intensity or rapidly accumulating heavy snowfall ...

Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

There are areas with poor snow structure where you could trigger dangerous deep slab avalanches releasing on buried persistent weak layers. I've been observing widespread weak layers consisting of small sugary grains called faceted snow across the zone, with the weakest in areas with relatively shallow snow. The rapid load from the prolonged storm is likely to cause these layers to become activated, and dangerous deep slab avalanches, up to around 3-feet-deep will become increasingly possible...The most suspect slopes are at upper elevations and facing northwest through east, but significant loading from the storm on our doorstep will probably cause the danger to become much more widespread. Pay close attention to red flags like audible collapsing and cracking, be willing to reevaluate or turn back, and avoid steep slopes will significant accumulations of new and/or drifted snow.

Additional Information

It looks like we're moving into an active weather pattern, and avalanche conditions across the state are likely to get quite dangerous in the next few days. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning through Wednesday. Snowfall will continue and intensify, with a foot possible at upper elevations in the Bear River Range today and an additional foot possible tonight. Southwest winds will intensify today and tonight, and sustained west winds will be downright strong tomorrow, with gusts of around 60 mph possible at the mountaintop level. Temperatures in the mountains will drop into the upper teens today and rise into the upper twenties tomorrow It looks like the productive and very stormy weather will continue at least through Monday and Tuesday...

Check out the Logan Mountain Weather page...

General Announcements

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Remember your information can save lives. If you see or trigger an avalanche in the backcountry or anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or email by clicking HERE. In the Logan Area you can contact Toby Weed directly at 435-757-7578.

This advisory is produced by the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist.

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