Forecast for the Salt Lake Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Monday, December 3, 2012

It's a different game out there. We will have areas of CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger in the upper elevation wind loaded terrain. The danger is most pronounced on steep north through east facing slopes...though with such high winds, one can expect to find drifts in unusual places. Cracking and collapsing will be sure signs of localized instability.

Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow

We have clearing skies and cold temperatures this morning in the wake of a strong but quick hitting cold front that moved through the area late last night. Most areas are reporting 4-9" with an inch of water weight. Winds are currently subsiding from the 50-60mph NW winds of last night and are currently light with gusts in the 20s. Temps are in the mid-teens.
Snow conditions yesterday were a mixed bag of crusts from wind slabs to sun crusts to rain crusts below 9500’. Best to start and stay high today for best coverage and conditions -

Today's forecast written with help by Canyons patrolman and AAI avalanche educator Jason Konigsberg.

Recent Avalanches

No recent avalanche activity except for some minor, shallow wind pockets yesterday.

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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

The severe ridgetop winds prior to and during frontal passage last evening led to significant development of wind slab at the mid and upper elevations. These wind slabs are falling on a multitude of crusts that overly a weak upper snowpack. The old snow surfaces, holding myriad crust, couple inches of heavy snow and thin wind slab will add to the trickiness of today's forecast. I suspect that the snow surface will act as a 'bridge' between the old weak faceted November snow and last night's wallop of snow and wind. This is not necessarily a good thing.

These slabs may be stubborn, devoid of pattern, but still likely - with the additional weight of a skier or rider - to collapse and fracture into an avalanche. Best to exercise caution in the steep upper elevation shady terrain today....

Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description

There is a moderate danger of storm snow overloading a weak snowpack at elevations above 9000’. A half of water weight and poor upper snowpack structure warrants caution.

Additional Information

In the wake of the storm, we'll see briefly clearing skies for today and early tomorrow. Temps will be in the mid to low 20s. Winds - now that they've blown all the mountain instrumentation over, are now light to moderate out of the west and northwest. By later Tuesday, a warm front moves through, offering wet, warm, and windy conditions through Friday. Ridgetop temps rise back to the low 30s...and we'll see west to southwest winds averaging 25-35mph with occasional gusts to 40. We may see accumulated snowfall over that time frame of up to 8" or so, particularly in areas north of I-80.

GFS and Euro models point toward a more significant - and favorable -pattern change for later next weekend.

General Announcements

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

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Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

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UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

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This advisory is produced by the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. Specific terrain and route finding decisions should always be based on skills learned in a field-based avalanche class.