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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Saturday, December 1, 2012

While you may be able to release some small pockets of snow today, the actual danger to a person is generally LOW. Steep upper elevation northerly facing slopes is where you would find these pockets today that could perhaps knock you down. Avoid those areas and you'll have no problems.

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Weather and Snow

Temperatures remain very mild this morning and are near 30 degrees along the ridges. Southwest winds continue in the moderate speed range along the mid elevation ridges with gusts into the 40s at the more exposed locations. The small disturbance that moved through last night left a couple of inches of high density snow above 7500 or 8000 feet where the rain-snow line was.

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The small amount of new snow along with southerly winds may have increased the likelihood of triggering a small pocket however the actual threat of injury from one of these remains minor for today unless you were to get pushed into rocks.

More important is the bigger picture. We've had a significant faceting event or "weakening of the snow surface" over the last 10 days. How this behaves once it is buried with more snow is a pertinent question. Up until now, I've been ecstatic about how our snowpack was shaping up. Unlike last season, my partners and I have been "centerpunching" big lines with reckless abandoned this season. Well, this isn't quite true. We did our homework and fieldwork and determined that the snow stability allowed us these faceshots in the luscious big powder filled bowls.

I fear that we will have to approach things with much more caution once Monday arrives with a fresh blanket of snow covering the weak snow that's formed on and near the surface over the last 10 days. Perhaps even today we may get a hint of how the weak snow is behaving under the thin blanket of new snow. I'm not saying "the sky is falling" but this layer demands our attention for a while.

Additional Information

We'll see very mild temperatures today with highs in the upper 30s at 8000 feet and around freezing along the ridgetops. It'll be a little windy with moderate speeds from the southwest. There will be some high clouds throughout the day. Sunday will bring similar weather during the day and then an intense and energetic cold front will move through bringing strong southwest winds and another shot of snow. .5 to .75" of water is possible in the moderate to high density snow anticipated to add up to 6 inches or so.

General Announcements

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake and Park City – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

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Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail click HERE.

UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides does daily updates about where they'll be operating on this blog http://powderbird.blogspot.com/ .

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clicking HERE

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This advisory is produced by the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. It describes only general avalanche conditions and local variations always exist. Specific terrain and route finding decisions should always be based on skills learned in a field-based avalanche class.

I'll be back in the office on Sunday. Thanks for calling.

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