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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Monday morning, March 8, 2021
Today you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger above treeline in upper elevation terrain, especially on steep leeward slopes in the wind zone, facing the north half of the compass. Both old and new wind drifts will react to our additional weight and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE. While more the exception than the rule, any avalanche that breaks to weak layers of snow near the ground will result in a deep, dangerous avalanche that'll instantly ruin your day.

Southerly slopes, along with wind sheltered, shady, mid and low elevation terrain offers generally LOW avalanche danger. Remember- low avalanche danger doesn't mean no avalanche danger, so please continue practicing your safe travel rituals and make sure you're carrying and know how to use your avalanche rescue gear.... transceiver, shovel, and probe.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
A thin layer of clouds slid into the region late last night and it's downright balmy for the beginning of March with temperatures registering in the upper 20's and low 30's. Of course, the warm before the storm brings increased southerly winds and they started ramping up midway through Meghan and Harry's interview, currently humming along in the 30's and 40's near the high peaks. Riding and turning conditions are gonna be hit or miss, but in between the old tracks and developing heat crusts, soft settled snow is still found on wind sheltered, shady slopes.
Forecast-
Expect thinning clouds throughout the day with temperatures climbing into the 40's. Southwest winds are gonna be obnoxious, blowing in the 40's with gusts in the 60's and 70's along the high ridges, but then decrease late in the day.
Futurecast-
The graphic above tells the story.... warm and windy with increasing clouds slated for late today. A robust, yet relatively dry cold front slides into the area late tonight. Better chances for snow develop late Tuesday into Wednesday when we might see 2"-4" of snow stack up. A cooler and more active weather pattern is expected through the end of the week.

Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
No significant avalanche activity to report

Observations, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong snow on weak snow is tricky because a slope may have many sets of tracks on it and still slide if someone hits a thin spot in the snowpack near a rock or bush hidden under the snow, like in the image above.
Avalanche conditions remain deceptively tricky and here's why-
The snowpack is gaining strength and it'll feel bomber under our skis, board, or sled. As a matter of fact, in much of our terrain we're nearing the "go anywhere" feel, especially where the pack is deep and strong. But remember.... the current seasons snowpack rests on top of weaker, early season snow near the ground. Think stronger snow on top of weaker snow. Now here's where it gets tricky. The probability of triggering a deep dangerous avalanche is generally low, but the consequences are high because the entire seasons snowpack will crash down on top of you if you have misjudged the snowpacks stability. Now, you wouldn't go to Vegas and bet against the house with those odds right? Personally, I don't entirely trust anything in the snowpack I can't manage, so I'm going to continue avoiding terrain that harbors questionable snowpack structure. Of course the usual suspects come to mind... steep, rocky, upper elevation slopes facing the north half of the compass is bulls-eye terrain and should be considered suspect. With all the great coverage across the range and so many other riding options, there's no reason to roll the dice or pull on the dogs tail.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A 24 hour data dump from Lofty Lake Peak, 11,186', clearly shows winds cranking along the high peaks.
It never ceases to amaze me how winds can find just enough loose snow to blow around, channel it through mountainous terrain features, and whip up a fresh batch of stiff wind slabs. We've seen several days of intermittent strong southerly winds in the high country and they've formed wind drifts on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies. Mostly stiff and stubborn, any fresh drift can react to our additional weight and has the potential to break deeper and wider than you might expect. Today, you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds or feels hollow like a drum.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Tuesday, March 9th.
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General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.