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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Sunday morning, March 14, 2021
Heads up... unusual wind direction leads to deceptively tricky danger today, especially for the east side of the range where the snowpack remains weak and fragile.
In upper elevation terrain, especially in the wind zone at and above treeline, you'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on steep wind drifted slopes and HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY, particularly on slopes facing the south half of the compass and especially on slopes with a westerly component to its aspect. While more the exception than the rule, any avalanche that breaks to weak layers of snow near the ground will result in a deep, dangerous avalanche that'll instantly ruin your day.
Strong winds penetrate mid elevation terrain and you'll find MODERATE avalanche danger. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep wind drifted slopes.
Low elevation terrain wind sheltered terrain offers generally LOW avalanche danger. Remember- low avalanche danger doesn't mean no avalanche danger, so please continue practicing your safe travel rituals and make sure you carry and know how to use your avalanche rescue gear.... transceiver, shovel, and probe.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Nowcast-
Skies are mostly cloudy, northeast winds blow in the 30's, and current temperatures register in the teens and low 20's. Light snow falls across the region with about 3" stacking up overnight in the central core of the range and closer to 7" the further east you travel. The big storm is still focused on Colorado and I'm not sure it got the memo to come visit the western Uinta's. However, northeast winds decided to crash the party and blew steadily yesterday and through the night with hourly averages in the 30's, peaking late last night in the 40's and 50's. Strong winds nuked our big open bowls, so mid and low elevation, wind sheltered terrain is the ticket.
Forecast-
Wrap around moisture is still on tap to impact the range, but I'm thinking we get more blow than snow. Morning snow showers taper off, northeast winds diminish as the day wares on, and temperatures climb into the upper 20's and low 30's.
Futurecast-
Dry and warming for Monday, another storm for Tuesday/Wednesday and then high pressure builds for the remainder of the workweek.
Looking for real-time temps, snow, or wind?
Click here and then on the "western Uinta" tab for western Uinta specific, weather station network.
Recent Avalanches
Ted was near Double Hill yesterday and has a great ob found HERE. Ted reports cracking around his skis and sled, but no significant avalanche activity to report
Observations, trip reports, and avalanches found here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The image above reflects a bump in the winds late last night at the Lofty Lake Peak wind site at 11,186'
East and northeast winds crank along the high ridges and with no shortage of light density snow to work with, they'll easily whip up a fresh batch of drifts sensitive to our additional weight. Strong winds aren't unusual for the Uinta ridgelines... it's where wind was invented... what's unusual is the east-northeast direction. Today, you'll want to look for and avoid steep wind drifted slopes facing the south half the compass, particularly slopes with a westerly component to its aspect. Remember, fresh drifts are forming on slick sun crusts and todays avalanches may run further and faster than you might expect.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As illustrated in the image above, the good news is... where the snowpack is deep, it's happy in its own skin.
However, snow is a curious medium and all we need to do is find one inconsistency or a shallow zone, maybe around a rock or bush, collapse the pack, and now we've got a bigger slide than we might've bargained for. So my safe travel strategy is to think about suspect terrain I want to continue avoiding and that includes steep, rocky terrain and slopes that avalanched near the ground earlier in the season. And here's something to consider... we've got a "go anywhere" base, so if you're getting into steep, technical terrain, remember that even a small slide can knock you off your ride, slam you into a tree, and throw a curve ball at your day.
Additional Information
I will update this forecast by 7:00 AM tomorrow, Monday, March 15th.
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community based program
General Announcements
If you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected]
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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