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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Monday morning, February 17, 2020
Heads up... the storm delivered and the avalanche danger ramped up overnight. Once triggered, todays avalanches will run faster and further than you might expect and they'll be packing a punch!
In the wind zone, at and above treeline, fresh wind drifts will react to our additional weight and a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on steep, wind drifted slopes. Avalanches breaking into deeper, buried weak layers remains a distinct possibility. Usual suspects include- steep, rocky, upper elevation terrain, especially slopes exhibiting a thin, shallow snowpack. Remember- any slide that breaks to old snow, instantly throws a curve ball at your day.
Mid elevation terrain got in on the act as well where strong winds whipped up a fresh batch of drifts on leeward slopes. While not nearly as widespread, a MODERATE avalanche danger is found on steep, wind drifted slopes and human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE.
Lose the wind and you lose much of the problem. Wind sheltered mid and low elevation terrain offers generally LOW avalanche danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Currently-
Cold, unstable air filtered into the region overnight and the storm finally got underway. It's a North Slope favoring kinda flow, with a solid 10" of snow and .80 H2O from Trial Lake northward. And while not a total bust, the south half of the range picks up a respectable 6" of snow. Westerly winds peaked late Sunday, blowing 40-60 mph, but relaxed somewhat a few hours ago and now blow in the 30's and 40's along the high ridges. It's cold out there with current temperatures registering in the single digits and mid teens. Riding and turning conditions are much improved and the vast majority of our terrain offers excellent riding right now. It'll be rugged along the ridges, so I'd seek out wind sheltered, mid elevation slopes where you'll be rewarded with cold, creamy snow.
Uinta weather network info is found here. Simply click on the Western Uinta tab.
For today-
Snow begins tapering off in the next few hours and winds should become more reasonable, blowing in the 20's and 30's along the high peaks. High temperatures don't vary much from where we're at this morning with overnight lows dipping into the single digits.
Futurecast-
A cold, yet clear start is in store for Tuesday with a warming trend slated for the remainder of the week.
Above, a 24 hour data grab from Windy Peak (10,662') illustrating a bump in winds along the high ridges, especially around 8:00-9:00 PM.
Recent Avalanches
Chad found sensitive fresh slabs developing throughout the day in mid elevation terrain and noted... "As the day progressed, the wind drifted snow was getting more sensitive and we started to experience cracking and we were easily able to cause small avalanches on any rollover."
Ted was in the Gold Hill/Moffit Basin wind zone Saturday and spotted this quasi-fresh, rider triggered wind drift. Here's his take.... "I was a little surprised to see how wide and connected it was roughly 200' wide, 2-3' deep and it did not travel far as the slope angle becomes less. Thinking maybe some low density or preserved faceted snow that was the old snow surface was buried by heavy wind drifted snow." More on Ted's travels and always informative insight found here.
To view additional trip reports and recent avalanche activity, simply click here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Triggered yesterday before the storm got going, steep, wind drifted terrain offered sensitive slabs by days end Sunday. Today's slabs are gonna have a much different characteristic breaking deeper and wider and packing heat.
Winds are cranking along the ridges and now with nearly a foot of snow stacking up overnight, there's no shortage of snow available for transport. The combo of all these factors changed the landscape and ramped up the avy danger. Fresh wind drifts are more connected and will break deeper and wider than you might expect. So... it's a day to tone down our objectives and avoid steep, wind drifted slopes, especially if they look fat and rounded or feel hollow and sound like a drum.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We can't see weak layers in the snowpack unless we take a minute, get our shovels out, and investigate... but the snowpack has an amazing memory and doesn't forget where these deficits are located. All we need to do is find one inconsistency (such a shallow, rocky section of the slope like in the image above), collapse the pack, and now we're staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche.
It's been nearly a week since we've heard about any avalanches breaking to weak snow, now buried deep in our pack. That of course, is good news, indicating that where the snowpack is deep, it's happy in its own skin. And while today's storm isn't gonna peel the wheels off the bus, I definitely want to think about suspect terrain I want to avoid, and that includes steep, rocky terrain and slopes that avalanched near the ground earlier in the season. Recent avalanche activity involving weak snowpack structure confirms this hypothesis.
Additional Information
While hit or miss in distribution, a couple of rime crusts offering different degrees of thickness and strength exist in our snowpack. Small grained facets are developing above and below these layers and now a stronger layer of wind drifted snow rests on top. Once triggered, today's avalanches will run fast and far, packing more of a punch than you might expect.
General Announcements
The information in this forecast expires in 24 hours, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Tuesday Feb. 18th.
This forecast is updated daily by 7:00 AM.
In the mean-time, if you see or trigger an avalanche or just wanna let me know what you're seeing you can reach me directly at 801-231-2170
This is a great time of year to schedule one of our free avy awareness presentations.
You can email me directly [email protected]
The information in this forecast is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content.
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