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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon for
Wednesday, February 13, 2019
In the wind zone, at and above treeline, the avalanche danger is HIGH. Human triggered avalanches are LIKELY on all steep wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass. Any avalanche that breaks into deeper buried weak layers near the ground will result in a very scary, dangerous, and quite possibly unsurvivable avalanche that will instantly ruin your day.
You'll find CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on steep, mid elevation, wind drifted slopes and human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE.
Recent strong winds have created unusual avalanche conditions in low elevation terrain where a MODERATE avalanche danger exists. Human triggered avalanches are POSSIBLE on steep slopes near our trailheads, foothills, and possibly our own backyards.
Yes, it's still sketchy out there but it doesn't mean we can't ride. Choose gentle terrain or big, open meadows with no steep terrain above, adjacent, or connected to where you're traveling. In other words.... simply stay off of and out from under steep, wind drifted slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Watch
THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.
* TIMING...IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN AVALANCHE WARNING.
* AFFECTED AREA...ALL THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH, TO INCLUDE THE BEAR RIVER AND WASATCH RANGE, THE WESTERN UINTAS, AND THE MANTI-SKYLINE PLATEAU. EXPECTING A RISING DANGER STATEWIDE.
* AVALANCHE DANGER...EXPECTED STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY DENSE SNOW AND RAIN-ON-SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. * REASON/IMPACTS...NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES WILL BE LIKELY ON MANY ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS
Special Announcements
On Saturday, 49 year old Jason Lyman of Mona was killed in an avalanche accident on the west side of Humpy Peak in the East Fork of the Chalk Creek drainage while riding with a friend and his son. We visited the site Sunday and are currently working on our accident investigation. A preliminary report is available here.
Of course the collective thoughts, prayers, and energy of the UAC go to the friends and family of Mr. Lyman.
Weather and Snow
Skies are cloudy and light snow is on our door step. Temperatures are in the mid teens, but what really stands out are the winds. Bet you missed them... huh? Well, not to disappoint they're back and blowing with a vengeance with hourly averages in the upper 40's and gusts in the 70's along the high ridges. It ain't yesterday, so you'll need to retreat to super, wind sheltered terrain at mid or lower elevations or get chores done and wait 'til the storm stacks up some new snow before heading out.
Above is hourly data from Trial Lake (9,945') and Windy Peak (10,662'). To view more regional weather stations click here.
Recent Avalanches
The images below clearly illustrate what's going.... and there's no mystery here, the Uinta's are sketchy!
From Monday, a shallow wind slab intentionally triggered from above, knocked the legs out from under a bigger piece of snow, which then quickly broke to the ground. This is "repeater" path, broke deep and wide right after the turn of the New Year and has harbored weak snow near the ground since flushing out.
A close call in Mill Hollow on Saturday as a snow biker was buried as he triggered this steep slope above the summer road. Lucky his hand was sticking out of the snow and everyone in the group was prepared for their own self rescue, quickly digging their partner out of the snow. This story has a happy ending. A first hand account with poignant take home points found here.
Above, a few images from Saturday's tragic avalanche accident in Chalk Creek. Triggered while the sledder was low on the slope, this slide broke deep and wide, taking out the entire seasons snowpack, snapping timber as it crashed down onto the slope below.
Recent trip reports and avy activity found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Our persistent weakness now buried deep in the snowpack isn't healing anytime soon. As a matter of fact, this is the type of structure that is particularly dangerous because we don't even have to be on a steep slope in order to trigger a slide... we just need to be connected to it. Problem is, we've got great coverage, the range is fat and white, and the snowpack is gonna feel really strong and supportable. As a matter of fact, we can ride some slopes without incident, thinking we're good to go, but roll up to steep, wind drifted terrain that didn't slide during last weeks big storm and now we're staring down the barrel of a dangerous avalanche.
But, here's what I do know and make no mistake... this is the real deal and not the type of avalanche problem that we want to tangle with or try to outsmart. Today's avalanches could still potentially be triggered mid slope, low on the slope, or from a distance. Once initiated, they'll break deep and wide and could take out the entire seasons snowpack in some locations, resulting in a potentially unsurvivable slide. That's too much uncertainty for me to deal with so I'm keeping it simple... patience and avoidance are the only solution. I'm simply gonna ride low angle, wind sheltered slopes and avoid being on or under steep, wind drifted slopes. Done... done.... and done!
JG's snowpit profile clearly shows our current layering... perhaps getting slightly hard to trigger, but once you collapse the slope it's game over. Here JG brilliantly describes what he's seeing.... "You really get a false sense of security when you are walking, skiing or sledding on such a supportable snowpack. Based on recent avalanches, what I have been seeing in my travels and what I have been seeing in my snowpits I don't think we are close to being out of the water. It's hard to not want to jump into steep terrain when there aren't a lot of visual signs to make you take a step back. Dig in the snow and see for yourself. Just read about the recent tragedies and close calls, it's sobering. Low angle is plenty fun right now, have fun and live another day. The forecast has been spot on, heed the warnings, the Uintas are sketchy right now. "
Snowpits are just a small sample size. What I look for is something I can sink my teeth into... like recent avalanche activity and the slide in the image above triggered in Upper Weber Canyon clearly sets the stage. Once initiated, this tree snapping slab, broke deep and wide, stacking up a huge pile of bone crushing debris.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Fresh wind slabs formed overnight, adding yet another layer of wind drifted snow. Now our wind slabs involve several storms, so they're more connected, and may break deeper than we might anticipate. While most prevalent on the leeward side of mid and upper elevation ridges, drifting also occurred around terrain features like chutes, gullies, and sub-ridges. In addition, this mornings winds are cranking even down low near the trailheads, so expect to find fresh drifts in unusually low elevation terrain. In any case, today you'll want to look for and avoid any fat, rounded piece of snow, especially if it sounds hollow like a drum.
A beautiful image and great observation by Michael J clearly showing winds have been busy at work not only forming thick wind drifts, but also creating large corni that may break back further than you might expect. More on Michael's travels here.
And yesterday, Dave Kikkert and Pete Earle found sensitive drifts rapidly forming near the ridges in Upper Weber Canyon. More on their travels, thoughts, and insights here.
Additional Information
An increasingly moist southwesterly flow prevails across the area today through Thursday. Look for mostly cloudy skies with heavy snow developing late this afternoon. High temperatures rise into the mid 20's and southwest winds crank into the 60's and 70's along the high peaks. A couple of embedded waves within this flow will bring period of snowfall through Thursday night, along with gusty southwest winds. Looks like a foot of dense snow is a good bet by Friday morning, with a break in the action slated for midday, before a colder system dives into the region and lingers through the weekend.
General Announcements
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM Thursday February 14th, 2019.
If you're getting out and about, please let me know what you're seeing especially if you see or trigger and avalanche. I can be reached at [email protected] or 801-231-2170
It's also a good time to set up one of our very popular avalanche awareness classes. Reach out to me and I'll make it happen.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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