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Forecast for the Uintas Area Mountains

Craig Gordon
Issued by Craig Gordon on
Sunday morning, January 15, 2023
Heads up... as today's storm materializes, the avalanche danger may bump up a notch, especially on the south half of the range (Currant Creek to Strawberry) which stacks up more snow-
This morning, MODERATE avalanche danger is found on steep, rocky, upper elevation slopes, especially in the wind zone at and above treeline. The danger is most pronounced in terrain facing the north half of the compass, particularly on slopes with an easterly component to their aspect. Human triggered wind drifts, along with more dangerous slides breaking to weak layers now buried deep in our snowpack are POSSIBLE.
Generally LOW avalanche danger is found on most south facing terrain along with mid and lower elevation shady slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Nowcast- The latest round of snow bypassed the North Slope, instead opting for the after hours club on the south half of the range and got the party started around midnight, delivering 4" of warm, dense snow in short order. Under mostly cloudy skies, snow is starting to fill in across the range and temperatures begin the day in the teens and low 20's. Yesterday's southerly winds registering in the 50's, almost reached cow tipping category, but began mellowing mid day and currently blow in the mid 20's along the high ridges.
Forecast- A good shot of snow is still on the way and should begin to get going by sunrise, quickly stacking up 4"-8". Southerly winds remain well-behaved, but as they veer to the west later this afternoon we'll see a bump into the 30's. High temperatures don't stray much from where we're at this morning and dip into the teens overnight.
Futurecast- A break in the action is slated for Monday, followed by a weak system Tuesday, though it look likes most of the energy dives south. A better shot of snow aligns for later this week.
Suncrusts took the fun out of the solars and winds have worked our big, open alpine bowls. But don't let your heart be troubled... lose a little elevation, steer yourself toward sheltered shady slopes and riding conditions are surprisingly good. Christian Koenig puts that theory to test.
Huge thanks for all the great obs streaming in from the eastern front. Detailed trip reports and recent obs are found HERE.
Recent Avalanches
It's a fact, snowpro and avy-savvy forecaster, Ted Scroggin, is our main man with the western Uinta plan. And yesterday Ted was stomping around the Double Hill area and spotted this couple day old, rather meaty pocket on Moffit Peak. Ted know the western Uinta's like no other and his solid insights on how the place works are found HERE.
A slew of additional Uinta avy obs are found HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Mark's time lapse of the big dig near Iron Mountain Friday... it's becoming a major chore just to excavate a snowpit and locate the November facets (PWL)
It's increasingly clear... there's a light at the end of the Persistent Weak Layer tunnel. So, you're wondering... is it open season? Man, I think we are getting so close and the recent series of storms is a huge test. While the snowpack appears Herculean and for the most part unreactive, as I begin stepping into big terrain I know it's not entirely impossible the trigger a deep slide. All I need to do is find one weakness in the pack, pull the rug out from underneath, and the entire roof crashes down on me. Likely suspects include steep, rocky terrain or slopes that avalanched earlier this season that have remained thin and slightly weaker. It's a low probability/high consequence scenario. And unless you've got avalanche goggles and can peer into the layers of the snowpack from a distance, now is the time to continue stepping out cautiously, but with intent, gathering as much snowpack intel as we can along the way.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
24 hour data dump from Windy Peak (10,661') show recent trend for wind.
Yesterday's stubborn wind drifts are camouflaged under a few inches of fresh snow, making them hard to detect. Found mostly on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges, I wouldn't be too surprised to find a fresh drift cross-loaded around terrain features like chutes and gullies and they may react to our additional weight. This is an easy avalanche problem to avoid... lose the wind and you lose the problem.
Additional Information
Such a rock star! Huge thanks to Joey Manship for all the hard work and Herculean efforts getting the Nobletts Beacon Park up and running. Located on the northeast corner of the parking lot, give it a go and practice your rescue skills on a down day, or while you wait for your crew before a ride.
Weather stations-
And... we were super busy this summer upgrading the western Uinta weather station network and this real-time winter info is found HERE (click weather stations, and then on the Western Uinta tab)
Observations-
Your observations are important, so please let me know what you're seeing... click HERE and contribute to this amazing community-based program
General Announcements
Issued at 03:33 on Sunday January 15th, this forecast expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 07:00 Monday January 16th, 2023.
Before it gets too crazy, now is the time to book an avalanche awareness presentation for your group, club, or posse. You can reach Craig directly at 801-231-2170 or [email protected].
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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