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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, March 2, 2025
No major change in conditions is expected through the weekend.
The majority of the terrain on the Manti Skyline has a MODERATE avalanche danger rating today.
There is still a chance that a person could trigger an avalanche that breaks into weak sugary loose snow from earlier in the season.
The most likely places to trigger something is on very steep north through east facing slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
I am pleased to announce that we have a new version of our Utah Avalanche Center app available. This is a huge improvement over our older version which I disliked and did not recommend to anyone. This version has an inclinometer for measuring slope angles. We plan to add new features on the next version this summer but this is a great start and again, a huge upgrade from our previous version.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Very warm weather continues. I have a weather station mounted on a utility sled that has tipped over due to all of the snow melt. This usually doesn't happen until April. Temperatures were well into the 40s on Saturday and cooled into the mid 20s overnight. Wind was been light from the southwest. Riding conditions are what you'd expect in April with hard crusts in the morning softening with daytime heating.
Mountain Weather: Today will be the last really warm day with temperatures again into the mid 40s. Wind from the southwest will be light but increasing in speed late in the day. We'll see some clouds starting to drift in mid day. A pattern change starts Monday with numerous storms lined up through mid March. The first is Monday into Tuesday that might bring around 6 inches of new snow. Another one along about Thursday/Friday may do about the same.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Layers of weak sugary faceted snow that formed earlier this year are present throughout our snowpack in many areas. These weak layers have produced some avalanche activity after every significant storm (which have been few and far between). Your main concern this weekend is the chance of triggering an avalanche that breaks into this loose sugary snow. The likelyhood of triggering one is decreasing but if you trigger one it will probably be a couple feet deep and that's more than what I'd call a "manageable" situation.
My co-worker Drew Hardesty hosts podcasts for the UAC. He and I had a conversation years ago that he decided to publish. It will give you insight to me as a forecaster but more importantly there is lots of information about Persistent Weak Layers, how they form, problems with them and how to deal with them. It is pertinent info for this season as we've had layers of loose sugar nagging at us all season and they continue to be a concern.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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