Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik for
Saturday, January 13, 2024
THE AVALANCHE DANGER REMAINS HIGH.
The danger is rated at HIGH for the Manti Skyline. Human triggered and natural avalanches are almost certain again today.
Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Avalanche Warning
What
The avalanche danger for the warning area is HIGH.
When
In effect from 6am MST this morning to 6am MST Sunday.
Where
For the mountains of northern and central Utah and southeast Idaho, which includes the Wasatch Range...the Bear River Range...Uinta Mountains...Manti-Skyline plateau...and the Mountains of Southwestern Utah.
Impacts
Strong winds and heavy snowfall have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Avalanches failing on a widespread persistent weak layer buried under the new snow are very likely. Stay off of and out from under slopes steeper than 30°.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Wind. Strong wind from the west really stirred things up over the last 24 hours. Gusts reached 80mph along the highest peaks. The wind maxed out overnight and is now starting to slow a bit but remains pretty strong. We have not seen as much snow as I was expecting. The northern end of the Skyline around Fairview Lakes looks like it's picked up 6 to 8 inches of new snow. It's difficult to confirm amounts because of all the wind drifting that's occurred. The central and southern end of the Skyline has not received any measurable new snow in the last 24 hours. Riding conditions remain challenging. The wind has really made the surface snow thick in many areas. The newer snow is starting to settle and consolidate. On skis Friday, I was staying more near the surface and not punching as deep into the snowpack as I was a few days back. Riders on snowmachines also noted the change. That said, I still trenched DEEP into the pack one time on Friday.
Mountain Weather: We'll see light snowfall today with things ramping up later this afternoon. It's going to be windy today again but probably nothing like it was Friday. Anticipate moderate to strong wind from the west. Temperatures will be a bit warmer than Friday with highs pushing up to near 20˚F. The next storm wave moves through tonight and will last into Monday. Another foot of snow is not out of the question and we could see more.
Recent Avalanches
A natural avalanche cycle is in progress. There were natural avalanches that were confirmed to have released during the day on Friday. Photo below: Scotty's in Ephraim Canyon, DJ Osborne. MORE DETAILS HERE
My partner and I were actually able to get into a higher-elevation basin in Spring City Canyon and view some natural activity that released very recently. There is something interesting to note about these slopes. They only release during the most unstable conditions. I've only seen them avalanche a few times since I've been forecasting on the Skyline. Since these slopes released, this tells me that MANY other slopes have also released.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
All bets are off. The wind wreaked havoc on the snow yesterday, creating drifts and overloading slopes to the point they avalanche. The weakness is a Persistent Weak Layer of faceted snow at the base of our snowpack. The snowpack is VERY UNSTABLE and conditions don't get all that much more dangerous. The wind has most likely created sensitive drifts and slabs even in areas where the Persistent Weak Layer is not present. It is quite simple. You need to avoid being on or below any steep slope.
TRAVELING IN AVALANCHE TERRAIN IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.