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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, January 12, 2025
The overall danger rating is CONSIDERABLE today on the Manti Skyline.
The most dangerous situation today is the chance you trigger an avalanche that breaks into old weak faceted snow from earlier in the season.
The chances of triggering an avalanche are decreasing but if you do trigger one, it will most likely break a few feet deep and with that much snow it doesn't take a very large slide to cause some harm.
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Moderate
Considerable
High
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Big Pine Sports
340 N Milburn Rd, Fairview, UT 84629
Tuesday, January 14th, 7pm
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Light snowfall has continued in spurts over the last 24 hours and totals are 3 to 7 inches. The wind has been from the northwest and has been gradually decreasing in speed over the last 24 hours. It is now pretty light. Temperatures have been cold with most stations in the low teens overnight. The little snow refresher should improve riding conditions but you better enjoy it while it lasts because the long term outlook is bleak.
Mountain Weather: It looks like clouds will shroud the mountains for the most part today. We might even see some light snowfall. I'm not anticipating more than a trace to an inch. Temperatures won't get out of the teens. Wind will be from the northwest and will remain light. There are literally no storms being advertised by weather models through Jan 28th. This can change and often does but it doesn't look good right now.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
My biggest concern for today is the lingering chance of triggering an avalanche that breaks into old faceted sugary snow from earlier in the year. The most likely places would be in areas with an overall depth of less than about three feet especially where the wind has deposited drifts of new snow. That said, the chances of triggering an avalanche continue to decrease. My guess is that you can get onto 9 out of 10 slopes and they'll stay in place. The difficulty is identifying the remaining slope that is going to avalanche.
While I believe the chances for triggering an avalanche that breaks deep into old weak snow is becoming pretty unlikely, I just don't trust facets with my life. These layers of buried sugar are too unpredictable. I've seen it. I'll continue to use caution and avoid the steeper terrain, especially those slopes that are known to release on a regular basis.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.