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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Tuesday morning, March 11, 2025
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep northwest, north, and northeast-facing slopes at mid and upper elevations, where human-triggered avalanches, 1 to 4 feet deep, remain possible on one of two buried weak layers. This is especially a concern in areas where both hard and soft slabs of wind-drifted snow have formed. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully today.
The remaining aspects and elevations will rise to MODERATE by this afternoon due to wet snow. This problem is all about timing—danger increases as the sun heats the snow. Start early, watch for warming, and get off solar slopes before they become unstable.
In the Provo Region, wet snow avalanches can run long distances, sometimes reaching below the snow line and crossing summer hiking trails. This means that even those not traveling in avalanche terrain could be caught in a late-afternoon wet slide descending from above.
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Special Announcements
We are heartbroken to confirm that 51-year-old Micheal Janulaitis of Marion, Utah, was killed in an avalanche on March 7 near Hoyt Peak. Micheal was caught and carried while skiing a steep, northeast-facing run in Hoyt Bowl. We are deeply grateful to the teams who helped bring him home. Micheal was a friend of the UAC, and his loss is felt deeply in the backcountry community. He will be greatly missed.
We are compiling accident details and a preliminary report can be found HERE.
March kicks off our Spring Campaign! If everyone in Utah’s backcountry community donates the cost of something they regularly enjoy on an adventure—like a dawn patrol burrito, a backpack snack, or post-ride trailhead drinks—we could fund not just one but two forecasters for the entire season! Donate here. Thank you!
Weather and Snow
This morning, under clear skies, temperatures are in the mid-30s to low 40s °F at both trailheads and ridgelines. Many of the Provo area weather stations didn’t drop below freezing overnight, but a few of the trailheads did dip below 32 °F for a few hours. Winds at mid-elevation ridgelines are southwesterly, blowing in the low double digits, with gusts near 30 MPH. At the highest ridgelines, winds are gusting near 40 MPH, with overnight gusts over 60 MPH.
Today should be a beautiful day in the mountains, with warm temperatures and sunny skies. Highs will reach the upper-40s °F, with southwest winds at 15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH at mid-elevation ridgelines. At the highest ridgelines, winds will blow 15-20 MPH, gusting to 40 MPH.
Outlook: A storm is still on track to move in from Wednesday evening into Friday, with timing now looking closer to Thursday afternoon. Snow totals have been adjusted slightly lower and could drop further if this trend continues. Expect 6-14 inches of snow, with water totals between 0.7 and 1.5 inches.
Snow Conditions: Yesterday’s warm temperatures have left a solid crust on east, south, and west-facing slopes at all elevations this morning. However, you can still find cold snow on northerly aspects at mid to upper elevations.
Recent Avalanches
In recent days, natural and skier-triggered wet-loose avalanches have occurred on southerly and westerly slopes during afternoon warming, both in the backcountry and at resorts. Some were large enough to bury a person.
No new avalanches reported from the Provo area mountains, but just to the North - Mark White remotely triggered a 3-foot-deep, 100-foot-wide hard slab avalanche on a north-facing, 40° slope at 10,000' on Red Baldy in White Pine. The slide ran on near-surface facets beneath a heavily cross-loaded slab of wind-drifted snow.
Check out all avalanches and observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong winds have created isolated soft and hard slabs of wind-drifted snow at upper elevations, especially on leeward slopes. These slabs likely rest atop a layer of small-grain facets in the upper snowpack, making them prone to breaking deeper and larger than expected.
Watch for and avoid signs of wind-drifted snow, such as textured or pillow-shaped features. Approach steep terrain cautiously, especially where drifting snow has accumulated.
Obvious signs of wind-drifted snow include texture, pillow-shaped features, and cracking like seen below. (MW)
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Two persistent weak layers remain a concern in the backcountry:
  1. Upper Layer: Faceted snow beneath last week's storm, marked by a dirt layer. Multiple remotely triggered avalanches have occurred on this layer over the past week.
  2. Deep Layer: The same sugary, faceted snow from the holidays that has caused multiple close calls, and fatalities in Utah this season. Now buried 2–4 feet deep, avalanches breaking here would be large and dangerous. It’s most likely found on thinner, shallower slopes, especially in areas that have already slid once or twice this season (repeaters)
Recent fieldwork shows signs of improving stability, but both layers remain a concern. The best way to know if they’re present? Dig—use your shovel and probe before committing to steep terrain.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Peak wet snow instability occurred over the past few days as cold snow warmed. The snowpack seems to be adjusting well to warm days and colder nights.
Wet avalanches are still possible today, especially in areas that didn’t see a solid refreeze. Expect activity from late morning to early afternoon on steep, south-facing slopes at all elevations, with west-facing slopes becoming active later. Low and mid-elevation, north-facing terrain may also see wet slides.
Timing is key—get off steep, sunlit slopes as they warm, as the danger will rise to MODERATE.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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