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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Issued by Trent Meisenheimer for Sunday, April 17, 2022
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists at the upper elevations where human-triggered avalanches 1-2' deep are possible, especially in areas with recent drifts of wind-blown snow.

Any sun or green housing will quickly make WET AVALANCHES the primary concern.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Today is the last regular avalanche forecast. Intermittent forecasts will be issued through April based on weather conditions that affect avalanche danger. We will continue posting observations and avalanches.
Weather and Snow
Yesterday's cold front came in and quickly laid down trace to 3 inches (0.06" - 0.33" water) of very dense snow. Westerly winds averaged 10-20 mph throughout the day. Mountain temperatures continued to drop for much of the day with the rain-snow line oscillating between 7,000' and 8000' feet in elevation.
This morning under mostly cloudy skies, the current mountain temperatures range from 30-35 °F. Winds continue to blow from the west at 10-20 mph, gusting into the 30's across the upper elevations. Today mountain temperatures will climb into the upper 30's and low 40's °F. Winds will remain elevated and are forecast to blow the strongest before 10:00 am this morning. Eventually, the winds back to the southwest and decrease in speeds later today. Cloud cover will be diminishing throughout the day, with clearing expected later on.
Recent Avalanches
None. Please continue sending in observations as we will continue to post them through the end of the month.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Over the past few days, new snow and active wind transport at the mid and upper elevations have been noted, and drifts may still be triggered in steep wind-loaded terrain today. Be on the lookout and avoid both hard and soft drifts of wind-blown snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A couple of variables to consider for wet snow today. First is the cloud cover; today, we will start with mostly cloudy skies and end with clear skies. Second is the 700 millibar (10,000') temperature forecast. Currently, it's -6 °C (21°F) and will continue to warm through Tuesday, when it hits +7°C (45°F). This is good news for today as the mountain temperatures will remain cold. Winds will also help keep the snowpack cool as they blow from the west and south at speeds of 10-20 mph throughout the day.
What does all this mean for wet snow? Well, my best guess is we won't see much of an issue today, and if we do, it will be later in the day once the sky has cleared, only affecting the south, southwest and west facing aspects. Monday & Tuesday will be a different story as everything will get wet.
It's April, and the sun is powerful. Remember, direct sun will affect the solar aspects, while green housing will rapidly affect the cold snow on all aspects, even the mid and upper-elevation northerly aspects. YOU'LL NEED TO BE YOUR OWN FORECASTER to see how the sky cover affects the snow surfaces. Roller balls are the first sign the snow is becoming unstable from heat.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.