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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Drew Hardesty
Issued by Drew Hardesty for
Thursday, February 16, 2023
Pockets of MODERATE avalanche danger exist for shallow slabs of wind drifted snow on many aspects and elevations. Human triggered avalanches are possible. Owing to yesterday's northeast winds, look for unusual wind loading patterns.
The danger will trend toward LOW by the afternoon.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Cold mountain.

Skies are clear.
Mountain temperatures are in the single digits. Cold air flowing down Primrose Cirque has Aspen Grove temps of -3°F.
Winds, mercifully, have lost steam and are blowing 10-15mph from the north-northwest. At 11,000', hourly averages are 20mph with gusts to 35.

Today's weather will be clear and cold. Mountain temperature will slowly struggle into the teens. Winds will be light from the northwest.

High pressure briefly builds across the area through tomorrow and Saturday with a cut-off Low pressure system diving well to the south. The northern branch of the split-flow system will graze northern Utah Saturday night and produce a couple inches of snow. Another disturbance moves through on this northwest flow Sunday night into early Monday. These, mind you, are just setting the table for what looks to be a significant and complex weather system for early/mid next week. It's still a few days away and a number of details will become more clear, but it initially looks wet, warm, and windy. It has my attention.
Recent Avalanches
Nothing good comes from an east wind.
We did not hear of any avalanche activity in the Provo area mountains yesterday. UAC staff Dave Coyne toured in Primrose and did not find any wind slabs; however I can't discount that they don't exist anywhere.
In the Central Wasatch....below
The north to east (from the north and east) winds tormented even the low elevations and people found sensitive, albeit pockety, conditions even in the low elevation bands just under 8000'. Extensive down canyon winds also triggered some avalanches, with powderclouds roaring down some of the steepest (do people use the word Extreme anymore?) north facing couloirs in lower LCC. One person ascending Coalpit 4 was caught and carried 150' and lost gear but was otherwise ok. His partner was briefly caught but not carried (Report).
Ski area avalanche teams triggered spotty and shallow soft slabs of wind drifted snow on a variety of aspects and elevations and this was mirrored by activity in the backcountry. A few examples below:
  • Days Fork NE 9000' 6" deep and 10' wide (photo below)
  • Bells Canyon NW 8100' 8" deep and 20' wide
  • Neffs Canyon NW 8700' estimated 6-10" deep and 100' wide.
  • A backcountry party experienced cracking and collapsing in Neffs Canyon at 7300', took the hint, and changed course.

Find all the recent observations HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Pockets of lingering slabs of wind blown snow will be littered across the compass at the mid and upper elevations. Don't discount the lower elevation bands either. Be on the lookout for drifts with unusual loading patterns, owing to yesterday's moderate to strong NE winds. Shooting cracks are indicators of localized instability.
Additional Information

Forecaster's Corner: This forecast was a difficult one. Avalanche danger is a function of many things: sensitivity, size, distribution, and character.
I do think that many of yesterday's slabs of wind blown snow will have settled out and become less sensitive...but if I were heading into the mountains today, I would be approaching any steep terrain and rollover as if it held a shallow wind slab. And I would not make any associations: this piece of terrain was stable, therefore the next similar slope will be stable as well. I would bump my plans for the "extreme" terrain to tomorrow or early weekend.
Maybe I'm just getting old and more cautious. I know what it looks like when things go wrong.
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.