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Forecast for the Provo Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Monday morning, December 23, 2024
Avalanche danger is MODERATE on upper-elevation northwest, north, and east slopes. Avalanches 1-3 feet deep, failing on a persistent weak layer of facets, are possible, particularly on recently wind-loaded terrain.
The weak snowpack continues to deteriorate, increasing the risk of dangerous conditions with the next storm or loading event. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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Special Announcements
Now is a great time to dial in your safety gear, including putting fresh new batteries in your beacons! Local shops across the state will be handing out free Batteries for Beacons from now until February 1, 2025. All you need to do is fill out a quick survey and grab the AAA or AA batteries you need to keep your beacon fresh this season. Find participating shops and more info here.
Weather and Snow
This morning, temperatures have dropped slightly under overcast skies. Trailhead temperatures are in the mid-30s°F, and ridgetop temperatures are in the low-30s°F. Bunnels Ridge reported 1 inch of snow as of 5 AM, while all other Provo-area weather stations remained dry. Winds at mid-elevations are west at 20 mph, gusting to 30 mph, with northwest winds at upper elevations sustained at 35 mph, gusting to 40 mph.
Today, a weak system will bring light snow from late morning into the afternoon, followed by a brief period of light riming this evening. A ridge of high pressure will build in late tonight and persist through Tuesday. Temperatures will reach the upper 30s°F. Winds will be westerly at mid-elevations, 5-15 mph, and 20-25 mph at upper elevations, gusting to 35 mph. Snow accumulation will be minimal.
Outlook: The Christmas storm is weakening, with the low-pressure system expected near the Utah-Arizona border. Snow will begin Tuesday evening with southwest winds. A cold front will bring upslope snow Wednesday morning. Expect 3-8 inches of snow and 0.30-0.70 inches of SWE, though some uncertainty remains. Light easterly winds are possible Wednesday if the low tracks near the border.
The active pattern continues with more snow Thursday, Friday, and possibly next weekend, though the storm track is shifting north.
Warm conditions have dampened the snowpack, even near upper elevations. Areas that refroze overnight may have a firm crust, while zones that didn’t freeze could experience sticky skinning. Consider bringing skin wax today.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches were reported in the Provo area backcountry yesterday. In the past 8 days, 4 avalanches have been reported in the Salt Lake, Provo, and Ogden area mountains, all above 9,800' on northeast or east-facing aspects.
See the avalanche heat map.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer (PWL) of faceted snow exists on northerly-facing slopes at mid and upper elevations, capable of producing avalanches 1-3 feet deep and over 100 feet wide. Wind-loaded upper slopes with a slab over the PWL are the most prone to sliding.
While warming and time since the last loading event have reduced the risk at mid-elevations, the persistent weak layer remains and will become reactive once we receive snow or wind.
Be cautious on northwest, north, and east-facing upper slopes, which have seen the most wind and snow.
Near Bob's Knob on Saturday, I observed preserved surface hoar and facets but found no results on this layer. The weak structure is obvious though, and will become an issue during the next loading event.
Additional Information
General Announcements
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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