Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia on
Monday morning, February 17, 2025
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the La Sal Range. The danger is CONSIDERABLE on all slopes that face W-N-SE. Deep and deadly human-triggered avalanches failing on buried persistent weak layers are LIKELY. Backcountry travelers should avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Avalanches can be triggered remotely, or from a distance, stay out from underneath steep slopes.
The danger is MODERATE on all slopes that face SW-S and human-triggered slab avalanches failing on buried persistent weak layers are POSSIBLE.
Conservative decision-making is essential for backcountry travel today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
The final report for the fatal avalanche in East Bowl of Silverfork in the Salt Lake Area Mountains is complete and available here. Our sincere condolences to all who are affected by this tragedy.
Geyser Pass Road: Deep and drifted snow cover the road with plowing not expected until Tuesday. 4X4 with high clearance is required, and chains may be necessary.
Grooming Conditions: Gavin groomed on Saturday out to Gold Basin and Geyser Pass
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 80" Depth at Gold Basin: 40"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: SSW 20 G30 Temp: 26° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 74%
Weather
It is a warm 26° F in Gold Basin this morning. Today will start out partly sunny with increasing clouds and a 30% chance of snow this afternoon. High temperatures will reach 31° F. Overnight winds blew in the moderate to strong range out of the southwest, they will remain southwesterly today and blow 15 to 25 MPH before shifting northwesterly tonight. A plume of Pacific moisture streaming in from the west brings snow showers to the mountains mainly north of I-70. Snow showers will expand into the southern portion of Utah and the San Juan Mountains this evening. We should see light snow showers overnight, with no significant accumulation. Skies will clear on Tuesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday will be sunny ahead of our next chance for snow Thursday into Friday.
General Conditions
Skiing and riding conditions remain excellent. The skiing is better than it has been all year, and it was great to see so many people in the mountains this weekend enjoying the new snow. Of course, a heavy load of new snow comes with avalanche problems, and the snowpack is dangerous right now. Collapsing and cracking continue to be widespread. I got multiple reports of widespread collapsing from two parties that toured around the low-angle meadows of Pinto Glades. This terrain is mainly west and southwest. Ryan Huels sent in this great observation that shows weak snow on southerly aspects. In my travels yesterday I continued to experience collapsing on northerlies, and stability tests are showing very sensitive weak layers. Additionally, I got test results failing on facets on a south facing slope. The bottom line is that persistent weak layers of faceted snow exist on all aspects and are reactive to the weight of skiers and riders. The situation is quite complex. The answer is to dial back our terrain choices and ride slopes less steep than 30 degrees while we let these weak layers adjust to the recent load.
In the video below, I discuss the current set up of the snowpack.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snowpack continues to give instant feedback with widespread cracking and collapsing. This is a huge red flag and should tell us everything we need to know. On many slopes, the snowpack is hair-trigger and just waiting for the weight of a human to come along and tip the scales. Most failures are happening on the 2/11 weak layer just beneath the new snow. Some failures are occurring on more deeply buried facets. Any avalanche triggered today has the potential to be very deep and deadly. Northerly aspects are the most sensitive, but there is no way to outsmart this avalanche problem. To stay safe out there today, avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees. You can trigger avalanches remotely or from a distance, stay out from underneath steep slopes. Additionally, below treeline terrain is especially weak, use extra caution while traveling in and out of drainage bottoms and give a wide berth to terrain traps and gullies.
Slopes that face southwest and south are less sensitive, but it is still a tricky situation. These slopes hold layers of alternating crusts and facets. Touring parties are reporting collapsing on these aspects. Furthermore, the 2/11 weak layer was destroyed by strong winds on some of these slopes, and it is preserved and reactive on others. This is sort of like walking through a field of land mines and hoping you make it. When things get complicated the simple solution is to make conservative terrain choices.
The snowpit below is a north facing slope that illustrates the recent storm slab failing on the 2/11 weak layer.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The recent storm snow came with strong winds that loaded leeward slopes on the north half of the compass. The hard slabs that formed on 2/14 will still be sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider. Recent southwesterly winds yesterday afternoon and overnight continue to blow and drift snow. These newly formed soft slabs of drifted snow will be sensitive, but they will also hide some of the older hard slabs, making for an even more complex situation. The strategy is avoidance, as most of these drifts formed in terrain that should be off-limits today anyway.
The photo below shows drifted slopes that are primed for avalanches and just waiting for a trigger such as a skier.
Additional Information
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.