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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, April 9, 2021
The avalanche danger is generally LOW this morning. As the day heats up the danger for loose wet and wet slab avalanches could rise to MODERATE by afternoon. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and punchy or sloppy unsupportable snow. Work slopes according to their aspect and get off of and out from under steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy. With water moving through the snowpack, slopes do not have to be in the sun to be dangerous. Thin shallow rocky areas and terrain under cliffs should be avoided.
Though unlikely, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche on very steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE where stiff slabs overlying weak, faceted snow may still be found. Shallow snowpack areas with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche.
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Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road is melted down to the dirt up to the parking lot.
The Lower Utah Nordic Alliance is through grooming for the season.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 48" Wind NW 25-30 G38 Temp 23F
A cold front moving through the region has brought gusty NW winds and cooler temps to our area. Today look for sunny skies, blustery NW winds, and temps 5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday with a high at 10,000' of around 40F. Slightly warmer temps, clear skies, and breezy conditions are on tap through the weekend with an unsettled weather pattern shaping up for next week.
Overnight freezes and daytime high temps mean everything right now. Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals and temperatures at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
NWS Weather Forecast
Snowpack Discussion
Successive nights with below-freezing temps have helped to lock up the snowpack and we've moved into a decent corn cycle on SE-W aspects. South facing lines are melting out fast, however. The extreme heat last weekend lumped up the surface a bit and it's not as smooth as it was but we found decent corn skiing yesterday between about 11,700' and 10,200'. Cooler temps and winds will slow down the softening today. Look for things to come on between 11:00 and 1:00 depending on the aspect. Once the crust becomes unsupportable and the snow starts to get sloppy, it's time to call it a day as the danger for loose wet, or even wet slab avalanches will start to develop.
North aspects remain in transition and conditions are variable ranging from hard, wind-packed, and frozen boilerplate, to crusted over with occasional pockets of dry powder-like snow. Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, especially at higher elevations and it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche on this weak layer. Slopes with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on this weak, faceted snow.
Recent Avalanches
This large wet slab avalanche occurred high in Gold Basin last Sunday. It failed on weak faceted snow near the ground as a result of percolating melt-water. Though extreme heat and a lack of overnight re-freezes contributed to the failure, we need to continue to be suspicious of this type of activity as the days heat up. Avoiding very steep, sun-exposed slopes around rock bands remains a good idea.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Cooler temps have helped to lock up the snowpack and wet snow avalanche activity is on the decrease. As the day heats up however, these are the problems to look out for:
Loose Wet Avalanches:
Be on the lookout for loose wet avalanches as the day heats up. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and "point release" sluffs that fan out and gather more snow as they travel down the slope. Timing is everything this time of year. Work slopes according to their aspect in relation to the sun and get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Wet Slabs:
Record temps and light to no overnight re-freezes a few days ago produced wet slab avalanches. This type of wet snow avalanche is harder to predict than loose wet it but can be invariably more dangerous. Wet slabs release when melt water saturates a layer in the snowpack and the over riding slab fails as a cohesive layer. Outward signs of this type of problem are not obvious but sloppy, wet, or punchy snow indicates that the pack is trending towards unstable. With water moving through the snowpack, slopes do not have to be in the sun to be dangerous. Thin shallow rocky areas and terrain under cliffs should be avoided.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, mostly above treeline on NW-N-NE aspects. Though unlikely, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche on this weak layer in areas with thin snow cover and in rocky, extreme terrain.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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