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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, April 3, 2020
A MODERATE danger still exists for deep and dangerous, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points such as steep convexities or shallow snowpack areas near rock outcroppings or sub ridges. With a strong sun this time of year, always be on the lookout for an increased danger for loose, wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. Signs of instability include pinwheels, rollerballs, and point release sluffs. Get off of and out from under steep slopes that become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Expect snow on the upper end with conditions turning muddy and sloppy as the day heats up. 4x4 recommended.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed.
Spring Awareness Campaign - Help us save lives through avalanche forecasts and education. Consider making a donation before April 8th.
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
January 5, 2019 - Read this collection of 6 stories and a podcast about that day with a low avalanche danger, 8 skier triggered avalanches, four catch and carries...a partial and critical burial, and a trip to the emergency room.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow T" Weekly Snow 12" Base Depth in Gold Basin 65" Wind NW 10-20 Temp 8F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: Skies are clear, NW winds are mostly light and it's cold up there! Continued light winds will shift to the SW, and high temps will climb to just above freezing. We should see some clouds developing later today ahead of a weak shortwave that will move through the area tonight. The weekend looks sunny and warm with high temps in the mid 40's. Overnight lows will drop into the mid 20's setting the stage for a good melt-freeze cycle and possibly some good corn skiing on S-W aspects. The long term forecast shows a Pacific low taking its time moving down the coast and eventually onshore by mid next week. things look to remain pretty quiet through Wednesday.
Snowpack: Reed Kennard was up yesterday and he reported winter weather with cold temps, steady SW winds, and consistent light snowfall though with little to no accumulation. He reported a mixed bag of spring-like transitional snow conditions. Read his observation here.
After a long dry spell in February, March saw significant snowfall, generally accompanied by strong southerly winds. Accumulating and wind drifted snow piled up on top of loose, sugary, facets that developed in February. This combination produced both natural and human triggered avalanches from 1'-4' deep. This problem still exists on northerly aspects, especially in areas with a thinner, underlying snowpack.
We're approaching traditional peak snowpack depth and we've managed to creep back up to just above average. The highest depth in Gold Basin this year was over the weekend with 74" on the stake.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Though the odds are decreasing, it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche failing on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed in February. Significant snowfall and strong winds have built slabs 2'-4' deep over top of this weak snow. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving this persistent weak layer on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Isolated, unstable wind slabs may still exist in the high country primarily on slopes facing NW-N-E. Most of these wind slabs have stabilized over the past couple of days, but their weight has put additional stress on buried, persistent weak layers. For this reason, it is still a good idea to avoid steep slopes that look fat or wind loaded.
Additional Information
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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