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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, April 20, 2021
Thursday's storm brought 10" of new snow to the mountains and the weekend saw nothing short of a powder frenzy. Sunny skies and warmer temps on Sunday saw an increase in danger for loose wet avalanches, but the real story is the wind. Starting yesterday afternoon, moderate WSW winds shifted to WNW by evening averaging 25 mph and gusting to 40. This has put an end to powder conditions on the high north faces and created a danger for unstable deposits of wind drifted snow. Cross loading on north-facing terrain will be a factor, especially on slopes with an easterly component, and fresh drifts will be found on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features such as gully walls and sub-ridges in all upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. For a list of the most recent observations go here.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We're through issuing regular forecasts for the season but will update through the month with a general conditions report as significant weather conditions dictate. We will also continue to publish current observations. I would like to give a huge shout out to all who supported operations this season. This includes everyone who regularly used the forecast to stay safe; our local business sponsors Moab Gear Trader, Talking Mountain Yurts, and ROAM Industry; Black Diamond Equipment, Outdoor Research, Voile, and Arva for setting us up with the gear we need to do our job; the Manti-La Sal National Forest for their tremendous support of this program; and last but not least, our great local community and crew of dedicated observers who provide vital information and assistance throughout the season. Thanks everyone, see you next winter!
Weather and Snow
Weekend powder frenzy on Mount Tukuhnikivatz with human-triggered, loose, dry avalanches in the recent snow. Dave Garcia photo.
Get real-time weather data from these links:
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals and temperatures at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
NWS Weather Forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
Normal Caution
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Spring Time Avalanche Concerns
Loose Wet Avalanches are the most common springtime avalanche hazard as a strong sun and warm temps melt and soften the snow surface. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and "point release" sluffs that fan out and gather more snow as they travel down the slope. Timing is everything this time of year. Work slopes according to their aspect in relation to the sun and get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Wet slabs release when melt water saturates a layer in the snowpack and the over riding slab fails as a cohesive layer. These avalanches are harder to predict than loose wet, and outward signs of this problem are not obvious, but sloppy, wet, or punchy snow indicate that the pack is trending towards unstable. Successive nights without a freeze and warm daytime temps contribute to instability. Avoid thin shallow rocky areas and terrain under cliffs, especially if the snow is becoming wet and sloppy.
New Snow can cause the avalanche danger to rise just like in the winter. Poorly bonded new snow can cause problems on all aspects when there is more than about 6" of new snow. Loose snow sluffs and soft slab avalanches are possible. This type of instability typically settles out in a day or two.
Wind Drifted Snow can create unstable drifts or slabs on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Recent wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Unstable wind drifts can linger for days or even up to a week.
Persistent Weak Layers can occasionally linger well into spring and deep and dangerous avalanches remain possible. Weak, faceted snow tends to hang around on northerly aspects and in shallower snowpack areas around cliffs and rock outcroppings. Avoiding likely trigger points such as thin slope margins or steep convexities are ways to minimize your risk for this low probability but high consequence hazard.
Additional Information
It's a wrap! See you next winter!
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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