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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, April 1, 2021
Most terrain has generally LOW danger. An isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger exists on very steep slopes above treeline that face NW-N-E where stiff slabs overlying weak, faceted snow can still be found. Shallow snowpack areas with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche.
As the day heats up be alert to signs of loose wet instability such as rollerballs, pinwheels, and sloppy wet snow on sun-exposed slopes. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
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Considerable
High
Extreme
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The Geyser Pass Road is a mix of mud and snow that becomes increasingly sloppy as the day heats up.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 64" Wind S 5-10 Temp 17F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Storm totals at the Gold Basin study plot (10,000')
Snowpack Discussion
I got to do a fly around the range yesterday with Chris Benson. Warm temps, a strong sun, and a bit of wind have affected the snow surface. In spite of heavy March snowfall that brought us up to just above normal snowpack, conditions in the exposed high country remain quite thin and many of the south-facing corn lines will have a very narrow window this year. Above treeline, cool temps and winds have prevented a good corn cycle from happening this week. Your best bet today will be on wind-protected, south-facing slopes near treeline and below.
Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, especially at higher elevations on NW-E aspects. This weak layer is stubborn-to-trigger in areas where the snow is deeper than about 5'. However, in shallow snowpack areas, the additional weight of a rider could affect these buried weak layers. Slopes with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak, sugary, faceted snow still exists near the ground, mostly above treeline on NW-N-E aspects. The most dangerous areas are less than 5' deep and contain wind-drifted snow on top of the deeply-buried persistent weak layer. Slopes with steep convexities and rocky, more radical terrain are where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche failing on weak, faceted snow. Here is a classic example of where this avalanche problem currently exists:
A lot of terrain in this photo remains problematic. Rock bands, steep convexities, and thin snowpack areas abound. These are likely trigger points for an avalanche where even a relatively small slide could have devastating consequences. The complex terrain features are also subject to wind-loading and cross-loading can occur from a variety of wind directions.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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