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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 28, 2020
New snow and wind have conspired to form fresh drifts at upper elevations and the avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, wind drifted slopes. Look for fresh wind drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. On slopes facing the north half of the compass, the danger still exists for an avalanche to fail on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow and human triggered avalanches 2' - 4' deep are possible. Avoid steep, wind drifted slopes and likely trigger points such as steep convexities or shallow snowpack areas near rock outcroppings. Stay conservative in your decision making, the threat for dangerous avalanches remains real.
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Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: The road has not been plowed. Expect a few inches of new snow in the road with up to 6" at the parking lot.
Grooming: Trails have not been groomed.
If you rely on the UAC forecasts each day you get out, consider making a donation during our Spring Awareness Campaign to help us continue providing the avalanche forecasts and education you rely on.

The UAC encourages everyone to follow direction from federal, state, city and county officicals. The following is from Joe Dougherty, spokesman for the Utah Division of Emergency Management:
Though outdoor recreation is still permitted under the governor’s Stay Safe/Stay Home directive, we recommend that people maintain a distance of at least 6 feet.
Be extra cautious to avoid injuries outdoors. We are working with our hospital systems to conserve as much personal protective equipment as possible in case of hospitalizations.
Most outdoor injuries can be prevented. Know the conditions and know your limits so you don’t end up in a hospital.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 6" Weekly Snow 18" Base Depth in Gold Basin 72" Wind NW 15-20 G30 Temp 8F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Weather: The mountains picked up 6" of new snow and winter has yet to release its icy grip. Southwest winds during the storm averaged 15-20 mph along ridge tops with gusts near 30 before switching to the NW by early evening. A second wave of showers occurred early this morning and clouds are still hanging over the mountains. Look for clearing skies today with light to moderate NW winds and unseasonably cool temps with high temps reaching into the upper 20's. The next weak wave will move into the region late Sunday afternoon and evening.
Dave Garcia and Nate Ament were up during the storm yesterday. They reported a fair amount of graupel followed by low-density snow that was not bonding well to underlying slick crusts on solar aspects. Winds were transporting the new snow forming fresh drifts at upper elevations. Read their observation here.
Snowpack: Beyond the formation of fresh wind drifts, not much has changed with our snowpack. Recent and wind drifted snow over the past couple of weeks has piled up on a snowpack that in many areas is comprised largely of weak, sugary, faceted snow. Weak snow can be found on all aspects but the weakest snow exists on northerly facing slopes right around treeline and below. Alpine areas generally have a deeper and stronger snowpack, especially out in the middle of concave bowls. However, slope margins, wind-swept areas, and areas right around rocks, cliffs, or sub-ridges have a much thinner snowpack. Weak, faceted snow exists in these areas. The recent spate of natural and human triggered avalanches in the alpine have included areas of wind drifted snow that have propagated into areas with weak, faceted snow.
Recent Avalanches
The San Juan Mountains experienced a round of natural activity on Thursday brought on by strong southerly winds. Many slides broke into old, weak snow, just like this large natural avalanche that occurred in Red Snow Cirque last Saturday. With a similar snowpack structure over here, we need to be continually aware of the potential for this type of avalanche.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shifting winds have blown and drifted the new snow and the potential for finding an unstable wind slab exists on all aspects at upper elevations. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Fresh drifts should be shallower and less consequential on southerly aspects but they will also be poorly bonded to the underlying slick crusts. On northerly aspects, new wind drifts continue to pile up on top of old, and in these areas, a triggered wind slab has the potential to step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and much more dangerous avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent and wind drifted snow have built slabs 2'-4' thick on top of a persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow that formed in February. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving this persistent weak layer on steep, wind loaded, north through easterly facing slopes right around treeline, or in shallower, rocky areas in the alpine. Avoid likely trigger points such as steep convexities or thinner snowpack areas around rock outcroppings.
Avalanche Problem #3
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose sluffs may be possible within the new snow today, particularly on slopes where the underlying surface is slick and hard. These should be fairly shallow and mostly manageable, but they could entrain a fair amount of snow and possibly sweep you off your feet and carry you over rocks and into trees.
Additional Information
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.