UDOT PLANNED AVALANCHE CLOSURES!!
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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, December 31, 2024
Strong westerly winds have kept the avalanche danger at CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. In these areas, dense slabs of wind drifted snow are overriding persistent weak layers of sugary, faceted snow, and human triggered avalanches are likely.
A MODERATE danger exists near treeline and below on steep slopes facing W through N through E, and on slopes facing W and SE. In these areas, human triggered avalanches failing on a persistent weak layer are possible. Also above treeline, unstable slabs of wind drifted snow may exist on all asepects.
It's still low tide out there and rocks, stumps, and logs re lurking just beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Expect slick conditions on a hard, snowpacked and icy surface. AWD with good tires required.
Grooming Conditions: Give a shout out to Gavin who groomed up and over Geyser Pass again yesterday!
Now is a great time to dial in your safety gear including putting fresh new batteries in your beacons! Local shops across the state will be handing out free Batteries for Beacons now until February 1, 2025. All you need to do is fill out a quick survey and grab the AAA or AA batteries you need to keep your beacon fresh this season. Head into Moab Gear Trader to get yours!
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 0" Season Total Snow: 52" Depth at Gold Basin: 28"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: WSW 5-10 G 30 Temp: 13° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 107%
Weather
After a several day run, winds began to back off by late morning yesterday and are mostly light this morning. Mountain temps finally feel more like December. It's currently 13°F in Gold Basin and 8°F up on Pre Laurel Peak. Look for partly sunny skies this morning that become increasingly clear throughout the day. WNW winds will be light and temps will remain seasonably cool with a high in the low 20's. Looking ahead, we may see chance for snow by the weekend.
General Conditions
The Christmas week stormy period improved conditions enough to bring people out and I've received several great observations over the past several days. All reported red flag signs of instability including wind loading, cracking, isolated collapsing, and poor snowpack structure. They also reported good turning and riding on sheltered, northerly aspects. Near treeline and below, the recent storm snow has formed a cohesive soft slab over top of very weak, faceted surface snow. Winds have stripped and savaged many exposed slopes above treeline while alternately loading leeward terrain. On northerly aspects, winds have built thick, dense slabs over layers of weak, faceted snow, and the danger definitely increases with elevation. South facing terrain is very thin, both from the sun, and from being stripped by the winds.
Winds have done a number on the high country. While the foreground shows stripped and scoured surfaces, in the background you can see smooth, rounded pillows of wind deposited snow on the northerly facing terrain in Talking Mountain Cirque. This is the kind of terrain where you are likely to find trouble. pc Mark Sevenoff
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
SNOTEL site near Geyser Pass Winter Trailhead (9600')
Wind Station on Pre-Laurel Peak (11,400')
NWS forecast for the La Sal Mountains.
Recent Avalanches
Jake Etter reported this recent avalanche on the NE Face of Tukno. It likely started as a small wind slab realease that entrained loose snow before finally triggering a slab on a persistent weak layer at the steep, rocky choke.
See the avalanche database here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Generally speaking, our entire snowpack on slopes facing W-N-E has faceted through to the ground and we've begun to incrementally load this poor snowpack structure. The weakest snow exists in the top several inches nearest the old snow surface, and this is where avalanches are most likely to fail first. The mid-pack, although also faceted, retains some strength in many areas, while the base of the snowpack is completely rotten.
The recent load has not been enough to trigger a major avalanche cycle, or even to create widespread instability, but it is the beginning of a precarious and unpredictable situation. One thing is for certain, the danger increases with elevation, particularly on northerly aspects, where wind drifting has added more stress to this fragile structure. In these areas, human triggered avalanches have the potential to step down causing deeper, and more dangerous avalanches. This type of terrain will need to be avoided for the foreseeable future. Near treeline and below, the outcome is less certain, but I've already adjusted my mindset to dealing with a persistent weak layer problem, and I'll be avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees on all aspects where it exists.,
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong and erratic winds have built slabs of wind drifted snow on northerly aspects near treeline, and potentially all aspects above. Wind slabs are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instabilty. The biggest conern however, is the added stress these slabs are applying to buried persistent weak layers. For this reason alone, steep slopes facing the north and east side of the compass should be avoided.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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