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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, December 24, 2021
Expect the avalanche danger to rise today and be alert to changing conditions!

The avalanche danger starts out MODERATE this morning but will likely reach CONSIDERABLE later today as fresh deposits of wind drifted snow form sensitive soft slabs on steep, upper elevation slopes that face NW through E. Human triggered avalanches will become increasingly more likely throughout the day and natural avalanches may be possible. Fresh deposits of wind drifted snow will also add additional stress to the underlying, weak snowpack structure increasing the likelihood for dangerous human triggered avalanches 2'-3' deep where stiff slabs exist over a buried persistent weak layer.
Most low elevation, and low and mid elevation S-SW facing terrain has a generally LOW danger.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Expect to find accumulating new and wind drifted snow on the road today.
Grooming: LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) groomed all trails on Monday. Follow them on Instagram @luna_moab. Thanks Matt!
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 1" 72 Hour Snow 1" Base Depth in Gold Basin 22" Wind SW 25-35 G45 Temp 32F
The curse of the La Sals. As mountainous regions all around us have snow stacking up we've picked up about an inch so far from the Category 4 atmospheric river that is sweeping through the West. But at least we're getting the wind! Snowfall "should" continue throughout the day and we could see 4"-8" by nightfall. SW winds will continue to crank and high temps will be in the mid 20's. An active weather pattern continues into early next week with our next chance for snow coming Sat night into Sun and then again around Tuesday. Let's hope we can squeeze some snow out of this period.
Snowpack
You will need to be alert to changing conditions today as the amount of new and wind drifted snow we receive will directly correlate to an increase in danger. Watch for the formation of sensitive fresh drifts on the leeward signs of terrain features and be alert to signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. With the potential for snow continuing over the next several days, we will have to be alert to a "re-awakening" of our buried, persistent weak layer. This problem exists on all northerly aspects where a dense slab 2'-3' thick exists over weak, October facets. The danger increases with elevation and as new snow accumulates, triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche in these areas will become increasingly more likely.
Overall snow cover remains quite thin but soft, settled powder over a supportable base can still be found in sheltered areas. Sun and wind exposed slopes are pretty hammered, and rocks, stumps, and deadfall continue to pose hazards.
Weather Links
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported since last week's storm event. Here is the current avalanche list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On northerly aspects, a dense, cohesive slab 2'-3' thick exists on a persistent weak layer of loose, sugary facets that formed in the October snow. Slabs have grown increasingly stubborn to release and it remains to be seen whether we'll get enough snow to re-awaken this buried, persistent weak layer. But to be sure, any avalanche triggered on these weak, facets would be deep and dangerous and steep slopes facing NW-N-E are best avoided until we see how they react to the coming snow over the next several days.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Blowing and drifting snow will form sensitive soft slabs on leeward slopes that face primarily NW through E. These will become deeper and more widespread throughout the day and as they accumulate we may some natural releases off the steeper, high faces. Be alert to changing conditions, stay out from under large faces, and avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Additional Information
And for you snow geeks out there. Check out this snowpit from Travis Nauman. Picture it as building blocks as it illustrates hard or denser layers over weak layers. The further a layer is shown stretching out to the left, the harder it is. The weak layer of concern is between 35-40 cms. Thanks Travis!
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.