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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, December 17, 2021
Areas of CONSIDERABLE danger exist on steep, upper elevation terrain that faces NW through E where recent deposits of wind drifted snow, and a pre-existing slab 2'-3' deep exists on top of a persistent weak layer of sugary faceted snow. Human triggered avalanches remain likely in these areas. On mid and lower elevation northerly aspects a MODERATE avalanche danger exists, and triggering a dangerous, 2' deep avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer remains a very real possibility. The best strategy for now is to continue to avoid steep, northerly facing terrain.
On upper elevation, W and SE facing slopes a MODERATE danger exists for human triggered avalanches involving recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and they may sound hollow underneath. Cracking is a sign of instability.
Most other south facing terrain has a generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County plowed on Wednesday. The road is snowpacked and AWD with good tires recommended.
Grooming: LUNA (Lower Utah Nordic Alliance) volunteers groomed Geyser Pass through Gold Basin yesterday.
Batteries for Beacons runs through Dec 19. Get free batteries for your transceiver and a chance to win 1 of 10 Black Diamond Rescue Kits, 1 of 3 Mammut Barryvox transceivers, or 1 of 3 BCA Tracker transceivers. Stop in at Moab Gear Trader, fill out our survey and get a free set of batteries. Don't need batteries, but still want a chance to win? Simply fill out the survey to be registered.
I was recently interviewed by Peggy Hodgkins for Science Moab. You can listen to the podcast: The Art of Avalanche Forecasting here.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 4" Base Depth in Gold Basin 23" Wind NW 5-15 Temp 6F
After a week of nearly relentless southerly winds, things are finally calm up there. Today look for sunny skies, light, northerly winds, and high temps in the mid teens. In short, a beautiful winter today. Dry conditions continue into early next week with a hint of the next system around Wednesday. Models are not in great agreement at this time and it's just to far out to say.
Brian Murdock and I took a trip into Gold Basin yesterday and found surprisingly good conditions in sheltered areas where a few inches of recent snow made for good turning on a supportable base. Reports from exposed terrain up high are of mostly wind damaged surfaces ranging from scalloped sastrugi, to breakable wind crust, to supportable wind board. Areas of wind drifted snow can be found on leeward, northerly aspects, and last week's 20" has settled into a cohesive slab on top of the weak, October, faceted layer.
Weather Links
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported since last week's storm event. Here is the current avalanche list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Last week's 20" of dense snow has formed a cohesive slab on top of of the old, weak, October snow. This faceted persistent weak layer will likely remain relevant for some time. Stability tests on Thursday showed that the slab has grown more stubborn to release with results scoring ECTP 23 on a north aspect around 10,000'. Any avalanche triggered on this layer would be 2' deep or more, and would result in a dangerous ugly ride. It's early season, and with a snowpack structure consisting of a slab on top of an obvious persistent weak layer, I'd continue to avoid steep, northerly facing slopes for the time being.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong southerly winds over the past several days have blown and drifted snow on to northerly aspects where weak, sugary snow from October sits underneath. These areas of wind drifted snow have added additional stress to our persistent weak layer problem. In short, the strategy is simple - avoid steep, wind drifted slopes on the north half of the compass. Recent deposits of wind drifted snow may also be found on slopes facing W and SE. Recent drifts may be recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance or sound hollow underneath. Cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes where you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.