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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, December 16, 2020
Due to low coverage, most terrain has LOW danger. Isolated, unstable wind drifts may exist on upper elevation N-E-SE aspects, where the avalanche danger is MODERATE. On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, old, pre-existing snow has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. An avalanche failing on one of these weak layers is currently unlikely, but not impossible, and future snow loads will increase the probability.
Overall low coverage makes it very difficult to access avalanche terrain at this time, but if you find yourself in these areas, suspect slopes that have smooth, rounded deposits of wind drifted snow. Cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability. Even a small avalanche triggered under these conditions can have serious and painful consequences.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The Geyser Pass Road above the winter trailhead has officially closed to wheeled vehicles for the season. This closure is in effect from Dec 15 - May 15.
As a result, LUNA's intrepid groomer Matt Hebberd packed in all trails through Gold Basin and Geyser Pass yesterday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 20" Wind NW 15-20 G25 Temp 15F
Skies are clear, northerly ridge top winds are blowing in the 15-20 mph range, and 10,000' temperatures are in the mid-teens. Today look for sunny skies, light to moderate NW winds, and high temps in the mid 20's. The next storm system will clip by to the north bringing a chance of snow to the mountains on Thursday, with dry conditions returning through at least early next week.
Prior to last weekend's storm, snow cover was mostly limited to northerly facing, shady slopes above about 9500', and depths ranged from a few inches to 18" or more at the higher elevations. Most sun-exposed slopes were bare. The bottom line is that there isn't enough snow for skiing and riding off of snow-packed roads and grassy meadows, and low snow cover is the biggest hazard out there right now. Barely covered rocks and deadfall can quickly ruin your season.
Tom Rowe skied up to Geyser Pass yesterday where he reported finding 2 1/2' of snow. Read his observation here.
Check the links below for the most current real-time weather info:
Storm totals at the Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000')
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Shifting winds since the last storm have likely created isolated, unstable wind drifts in upper elevations primarily on slopes that face N-E-SE. This terrain is very difficult to access, but if you find yourself in these areas, avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. These can often be recognized by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
On mid and upper elevation northerly aspects, old, pre-existing snow has deteriorated into layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow on top of a slick, hard bed surface. An avalanche failing on one of these weak layers is currently unlikely, but not impossible, and future snow loads will increase the probability.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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