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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, January 21, 2022
Most terrain has generally LOW danger.
Though unlikely, it may still be possible to trigger a deep, and dangerous avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer on steep slopes facing NW through E. This is a low probability, high consequence scenario. Likely trigger points include thin, rocky areas, slopes with steep convexities, and areas of more extreme terrain.
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High
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Special Announcements
The beacon training park is up and running above the Geyser Pass Trailhead. Pull out your beacon and practice your skills as you head up the trail! A huge thanks to Talking Mountain Yurts and Moab Gear Trader for their support of this great resource!
Road Conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is dirt and mud down low, snow packed and icy above. AWD and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: LUNA groomed all trails yesterday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 41" Wind WNW 5-15 Temp 23
NWS Weather Forecast for the La Sal Mountains
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Clouds have moved into the area and we'll see a chance for a couple inches of snow today. Winds will shift to the NE but remain relatively light. High temps will be in the low 20's. Mostly sunny skies will return on Saturday and last through the weekend. Another high pressure ridge builds over the west coast and we'll remain under a mostly dry, northwest flow through next week with a couple of minor disturbances sliding through the region.
Snowpack
Forecasted amounts of new snow today won't effect the avalanche danger. Over the past few weeks, the snow surface has been subject to the ravages of wind and sun and conditions are variable. A particularly unfortunate north wind event occurred on Friday, Jan 14, which put a damper on soft snow conditions on exposed northerly aspects. Stout sun crusts have developed on southerly aspects, and some supportable corn-like conditions are beginning to develop. On shady aspects, snow at or near the surface is becoming loose and weak. Something to keep an eye on when new snow finally comes.
You'd be hard pressed to trigger an avalanche, but that doesn't mean you couldn't. A persistent weak layer of faceted snow still exists at the base of the snow pack on northerly aspects. In many areas, this weak layer is buried by a strong slab 5'-7' thick. In other areas, the over riding slab is only 3'-4' thick. In thinner snowpack areas, the buried weak layer may be more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider. This is why we say likely trigger points include thinner snowpack areas such as the lines along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, steep convexities, or on slopes that have previously avalanched. I would still strongly consider this before stepping out into very steep, rocky, radical terrain where triggering a deep, and dangerous avalanche remains possible.
In spite of the dry January so far, statewide snowpack averages are looking good.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported since the Dec 31 avalanche cycle. Go here for the complete list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of of sugary, faceted snow exists at the base of the snow pack and a dense slab 3'-6' thick is sitting on top. Time, warmer temperatures, and compression from the load are helping to heal this weak layer, and snow pits and stability tests performed by myself and local observers indicate that it has either gained strength, or has moved into a state of dormancy. Generally speaking, the deeper the snowpack, the stronger it is. This weak layer still remains a concern in areas where the snowpack is thin, and therefore much more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider.
Photo illustrates strong slab over weak, October facets. Extended column tests produced no results and it's becoming harder for the weight of a skier or rider to affect this basal weak layer. Shallower snowpack areas are likely trigger points.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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