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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, January 17, 2022
Most terrain has generally LOW danger.
Though unlikely, it may still be possible to trigger a deep, and dangerous avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer on steep slopes facing NW through E. This is a low probability, high consequence scenario. Likely trigger points include thin, rocky areas, slopes with steep convexities, and areas of more extreme terrain.
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High
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The beacon training park is up and running above the Geyser Pass Trailhead. Pull out your beacon and practice your skills as you head up the trail! A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for their support of this great resource!
Road Conditions: The road to Geyser Pass Trailhead is plowed but snow packed and slick. AWD and good tires are recommended.
Grooming: Matt from LUNA was up on Friday keeping grooming conditions fresh. With deteriorating snow surfaces, fresh corduroy may be the best game in town!
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" 72 Hour Snow 0" Base Depth in Gold Basin 41" Wind WNW 5-15 Temp 20F
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Storm Totals in Gold Basin
Wind Station on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
NWS Weather Forecast
Look for increasing clouds today as a weak low pressure system moves inland off the coast of Southern California. Light WNW winds will become more westerly throughout the day and high temps will be in the low 30's. Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with the next disturbance dropping into our area Thursday night into Friday. It doesn't currently appear to be much to get excited about.
Snowpack
It's been over a week since the mountains were graced with 5" of low density powder, and the last significant storm before that was on December 31. Since then, the snow surface has been subject to the ravages of wind and sun and conditions are variable. A particularly unfortunate north wind event occurred on Friday, Jan 14, which put a damper on soft snow conditions on exposed northerly aspects. In our travels on Sunday, we were still able to find soft snow on sheltered, shady aspects, but even in the woods, the effects of the wind were present. Stout sun crusts have developed on southerly aspects, and some supportable corn-like conditions were beginning to develop.
You'd be hard pressed to trigger an avalanche, but that doesn't mean you couldn't. A persistent weak layer of faceted snow still exists at the base of the snow pack on northerly aspects. In many areas, this weak layer is buried by a strong slab 5'-7' thick. In other areas, the over riding slab is only 3'-4' thick. In thinner snowpack areas, the buried weak layer may be more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider. This is why we say likely trigger points include thinner snowpack areas such as the lines along slope margins, near rocky outcrops, steep convexities, or on slopes that have previously avalanched. I would still strongly consider this before stepping out into very steep, rocky, radical terrain where triggering a deep, and dangerous avalanche remains possible.
We took a trip up into the high country in Gold Basin last Thursday. See video report below.
Recent Avalanches
No new avalanches have been reported since the Dec 31 avalanche cycle. Go here for the complete list.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A persistent weak layer of of sugary, faceted snow exists at the base of the snow pack and a dense slab 3'-6' thick is sitting on top. Time, warmer temperatures, and compression from the load are helping to heal this weak layer, and snow pits and stability tests performed by myself and local observers indicate that it has either gained strength, or has moved into a state of dormancy. Generally speaking, the deeper the snowpack, the stronger it is. This weak layer still remains a concern in areas where the snowpack is thin, and therefore much more easily affected by the weight of a skier or rider.
Photo illustrates strong slab over weak, October facets. Extended column tests produced no results and it's becoming harder for the weight of a skier or rider to affect this basal weak layer. Shallower snowpack areas are likely trigger points.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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