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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Sunday morning, April 5, 2020
Heightened avalanche conditions and MODERATE danger exist today on steep slopes at all elevations in the Logan Zone. People could trigger 1 to 2 foot deep slab avalanches of wind drifted snow on steep upper elevation slopes. Rain falling on already saturated snow will cause increasing danger of wet avalanches in steep mid and lower elevation terrain.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully.
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We are sad to share the news of two recent avalanche fatalities:
On Wednesday, Trace Carrillo died in an avalanche on Taylor Mountain near Teton Pass. Trace was formerly an intern with the UAC and more recently a wilderness ranger with the Forest Service. Article here. Preliminary report here.
On Friday, Rob Kincaid died in an avalanche just north of Palisades Reservoir near the ID/WY stateline. Rob was well known by many snowmobilers as an athlete for Arctic Cat and veteran of many snowmobile competitions. Article here. Preliminary report here.
More details should be available soon about these tragic events but initial reports are that both men were wearing avalanche transceivers that were not turned on.
January 5, 2019 - Read this collection of 6 stories and a podcast about that day with a low avalanche danger, 8 skier-triggered avalanches, four catch and carries, a partial and critical burial, and a trip to the emergency room.
Weather and Snow
It's 29°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel and there is 98 inches of total snow with 112% of normal Snow Water Equivalent. It's raining in Logan and it looks like it rained at mid elevations in the mountains as well this morning, with the 7400' Temple Fork Snotel reporting 0.3" SWE and no new snow. It's 24°F at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, and after strong south winds blew overnight, southwest winds are again increasing and are currently blowing about 25 mph.
Heightened avalanche conditions exist at upper elevations, and people could trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted snow. Warming daytime temperatures, a rising rain/snow line, and rain on snow will cause increasing probability of wet avalanches at lower and mid elevations during the day in steep terrain.
Evaluate terrain carefully and continue to practice safe travel protocols to minimize your risk. Staying on slopes less than 30 degrees is the best way to avoid problems.
The low pressure system moving south along the California coast will bring windy and mild conditions to much of the area through early next week. Cool and wet conditions will settle over central and southern Utah as the low pressure system moves east across the desert southwest midweek.
Expect snow at upper elevations in the mountains today, with 1 to 3 inches possible, 8500' high temperatures around 44°F, and southwest wind blowing 6 to 11 mph. Temperatures at lower elevations will climb into the 50s and the rain-snow line will rise in elevation during the day. Snow and rain showers are likely tonight, with little accumulation likely. It will be cloudy and low temperatures are expected to drop to around 30°F, with 10 to 20 mph south winds. Snow is expected in the mountains tomorrow, with 1 to 2 inches likely, high temperatures around 43°F, and it will be breezy, with 16 to 23 mph south winds.
Recent Avalanches
Friday afternoon on Cornice Ridge above Tony Grove Lake, a snowmobiler triggered an avalanche of wind drifted snow above a group of skiers building a jump. The 14" deep and a few hundred feet wide avalanche on a northeast facing slope at around 9200' in elevation overran the area, and the skiers narrowly escaped as a large pile of debris stacked up on their not yet completed jump. Shortly afterward, a rider from another group triggered another slab avalanche, just north and adjacent to the first.
Thursday afternoon, a rider triggered and rode out of a soft slab avalanche in Bullen Basin, in upper White Pine Canyon. The avalanche of wind drifted snow on a 40 degree east facing slope at about 9300' was estimated to be 16" deep and about 80' wide.
There were some pretty good sized natural avalanches observed this week in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness, the Mount Naomi Wilderness, and in the Central Bear River Range.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Heightened avalanche conditions exist in drifted upper elevation terrain. People could trigger avalanches of wind drifted snow, with slabs ranging from 1 to 2 feet deep, on steep upper elevation slopes again today.
  • Watch for cracking as a sign of instability.
  • Avoid stiffer, recently drifted snow near the ridge tops, on corniced slopes, and in and around terrain features like sub-ridges, gullies, scoops, and cliff bands.
  • Stay off and out from under large ridge top cornices, which could break much further back than expected and might trigger avalanches on steep slopes below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Temperatures will warm throughout the day, rain will fall on the snow at mid and lower elevations, and heightened conditions for loose wet avalanches will likely develop on steep slopes.
  • Watch for loose, unconsolidated snow, roller balls, pin-wheels, and natural sluffs as telltale signs of instability.
  • If you or your machine starts sinking into saturated snow or if the snow where you are gets warm and slushy, you should move off of and out from under steep slopes.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
Skiing and riding at closed ski resorts - Some resorts allow access now, and some do not. Please check HERE for the latest info on ski area access.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
We found the new snow not sticking very well the the wet old snow at lower elevations on Wednesday.
General Announcements
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
We will update this forecast before about 7:30 tomorrow morning.
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