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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Wednesday morning, January 11, 2023
Heavy snow, rain at lower elevations, and drifting snow created very dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry. There is HIGH danger in all upper elevation terrain and on mid elevation slopes facing west, north, east, and southeast. CONSIDERABLE danger exists in southerly facing mid elevation terrain and at lower elevations. People are likely to trigger dangerous avalanches and large and long running natural avalanches are possible.
Today people should avoid travel in avalanche terrain. Stay off and out from under slopes steeper than 30°
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Weather and Snow
Rain and heavy wet snow created dangerous wet avalanche conditions at lower elevations, with natural avalanches Monday and Tuesday. Avalanches of wind drifted snow are likely at upper and mid elevations, and the storm is elevating the danger of soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow as well as overloading slopes with a buried persistent weak layer near the ground.
The National Weather Service has continued a Winter Storm Advisory through today. Heavy snow is falling this morning across the Logan Zone. The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports about 17" of heavy new snow with 2.5" of SWE in the past 48 hrs. It's 24° F and there is 87 inches of total snow. This morning at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station, winds are blowing 25-30 mph from the west with gusts close to 50 mph, and the temperature is 17° F.
Today, we can expect snow this morning tapering off, with high temperatures at 8500' around 26° F and 20 to 25 mph winds blowing from the west-northwest. 2 to 4 inches of additional accumulation is possible. Tonight will be partly cloudy with low temperatures around 11° F and 10 to 15 mph winds from the west. Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with high temperatures around 32° F and most likely pretty dangerous avalanche conditions on many slopes steeper than 30°
-The moisture train continues to march on with another storm on tap for the weekend and more beyond that.
Recent Avalanches
  • A rider found dangerous wet avalanche conditions at low elevations Monday afternoon near the Logan River, triggering a few loose wet avalanches and observing a good amount of natural activity. Natural wet avalanches were common yesterday in steep terrain across the zone..
  • Sunday a party of skiers had a close call in the Wellsville Mountain Wilderness in South Bowl. As the skiers descended, they triggered a very large slab avalanche 6 feet deep and 200 feet wide, running 1,750 vertical feet downhill.
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Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
At upper and mid elevations, heavy snow and drifting from south and now west winds elevated the danger of soft slab and loose avalanches of storm snow. People could trigger soft slab avalanches of storm snow 1-2 feet thick even in sheltered terrain. Loose avalanches could entrain significant piles of moist snow.
Rain and heavy wet snow created dangerous loose wet avalanche conditions at lower elevations, with small natural avalanches common in steep terrain in the past couple days. People should avoid being on or under steep slopes with saturated new snow. This would include a few select fishing holes on the Logan River and some places that you might walk the dog or take the kids sledding.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong southerly winds in the past couple days transported plenty of snow. The wind picked up snow in fetch areas on windward slopes and in low angled terrain and deposited it on lee slopes and in terrain influenced deposition areas. The drifting built fresh slabs of thicker snow and added more weight to slopes with poor snow structure.
  • A smaller wind slab avalanche overrunning a slope with a poor snow structure could cause a much larger avalanche to step down to our now deeply buried November persistent weak layer.
  • As always, look for and avoid drifts on the lee side of prominent ridges, on corniced slopes, and in and around terrain features like cliff bands, mid-slope break overs, gully walls, sub ridges, saddles, and sinks.
  • Human-triggered avalanches 1-2' deep are possible in drifted areas.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
  • People or smaller natural avalanches could trigger large and dangerous hard slab avalanches failing on a deeply buried persistent weak layer.
  • Such an avalanche could still be triggered remotely, from a distance or below.
  • Natural avalanches failing on sugary weak snow near the ground could be very large and long running, perhaps descending into lower elevations.
General Announcements
  • Remember, when you leave the ski area boundary, Beaver Mt or Cherry Peak, you are entering the backcountry, and you could trigger dangerous avalanches.
  • Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
  • For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
  • For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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