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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Dave Kelly
Issued by Dave Kelly for
Monday, March 20, 2023
Another Atmospheric River is knocking at our doorstep. With this first wave we can expect up to a foot of snow. The second storm arrives Tuesday night with another 1-2' of snow forecasted above 8,000'. As more snow falls the avalanche danger will rise and the potential for triggering new and wind-drifted snow avalanches on steep terrain over 30 degrees will increase. If snowfall rates hit 1" an hour the avalanche danger will rise.
When the warm March sun comes out the new snow will react very quickly. Any sun-exposed slope with even a few inches of new snow will display signs of instability such as roller-balls and pinwheels. Stay out from any sun affected slope when these signs are present.
Slopes that have new snow or wind-drifted snow have the potential to avalanche. Look for and avoid rounded pillows of new snow, a hollow or drummy feeling snow surface and avoid steep terrain if you see shooting cracks or hear any whumpfing.
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Weather and Snow
Another Atmospheric River event will impact the area from Mon-Thu with periods of very heavy snowfall expected!
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Summary and General Conditions
The first wave of the Atmospheric River is just arriving and will bring snowy weather to the region today through Wednesday. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning valid until midnight on Wednesday for locations over 8,000' where snowfall totals could exceed 2' of snow with 2-3" of water and strong winds.
It is still possible to trigger an avalanche on steep, northerly aspects, or anywhere you can detect recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Sunny slopes will be crusted and may get sloppy as the day heats up. Be alert to signs of loose, wet instability such as roller balls or pinwheels, and sloppy, wet snow, and stay off of and out from under steep slopes when these signs are present.
Additional Information
If you are getting out in the backcountry, we'd love to hear what you're seeing. Please submit observations here. For the most recent snowpack observations click here. You can also send an email to [email protected] or give me a call with anything noteworthy, especially avalanches! 801-647-8896
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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