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Blog: Expert Intuition and the Avalanche Problem

Drew Hardesty
Forecaster


Not long ago, I was invited to give a talk on any subject of my choice to aLevel 3 avalanche class with the American Avalanche Institute. The owners of AAI and I haveknown each other for 15-20 years. They should have known better.

So. The night before, I had the Level 3 participants - all experiencedsnow and avalanche professionalsin their own right - think of a time when an avalanche surprised them.

The next morning, I began by showing them a clip of risk reduction researcher Gordon Graham talking about what he calls High Risk, Low Frequency events. You should watch it. 15 minutes.I posted it here a couple of years go. You'll see below how he segregates the different types of incidents and where most of the accidents occur. He's addressing fire and police personnel, but he may as well be addressing snow safety professionals and very experienced backcountry skiers and riders. Follow the figures below to see how this applies.

Gordon Graham's segregation of incidents:


The Utah Avalanche Center's segregation of avalanches:




These are the types of avalanches that snow safety professionals see "every day", multiple times a day (during avalanche weather days).


These are the avalanches that the avalanche professionals and experienced backcountry skiers/riderssee infrequently.

At this point, it's instructive to look at our Utah stats since 1940. What type of avalanches are responsible for our fatalities? As Gordon Graham points out, our incidents occur not during high frequency events, but in low frequency events.

This season in particular has been particuarly challenging as most of the incidents and close calls have involved professionals and very experienced backcountry skiers and riders.

The behavioural scientists (and, arguably, economists)Kahneman, Klein,Taleb, and others talk about this idea called RPDM - Recognition Primed Decision Making...which can be argued as that which separates the novices from the experts. This idea of Expert Intuition. Expert Intuition argued as something that develops from pattern recognition over a long period of time because they are high-frequency events. Persistent, especially Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are low-frequency events. And because they are low-frequency events (particularly Glide avalanches), we therefore cannot develop expert intuition for them.

But back to the classroom. By now, you may not be surprised to hear that most of the surprises were with Persistent or Deep Slab avalanches...or rapidly changing conditions.

Impediments to our understanding of the situation:

  • Ego. The famed Swiss avalanche practicioner AndrĂ© Roch (1906-2002) wrote, "The avalanche does not know that you are an expert." In other words, dig snowpits, but Don't try to outsmart the avalanche.
  • Correlation does not equal causation. Poor science or understanding of the phenomenon.
  • Normalization of Deviance. The classic negative feedback loop - referring to the first impediment - where, in the words of Sydney Dekker, "bad decisions masquerade as good ones". Dianne Vaughan's take on the Challenger disaster.


So what's the take-home?

  1. Risk isinherent in mountain travel.
  2. Ski patrollers and other snow safety personnel assume risks forthe skiing public.
  3. It is difficult if not impossible to develop expert intuition with Deep Slab avalanches.
  4. Extra Caution is required. Provide for a wide margin for error in decision-making.

What else? I talked about growing old. But that's for another time.

Comments
Calamity happens when you least expect it. We may all it accidental, but it's Blindsidedness, or eyes wide shut.
Jim Knight
Fri, 2/19/2016
As I read the avalanche forecast I can hear the Snow Safety hand charges in the background. I Live 2 blocks from Vail resorts Park City location. I noticed a wet slide was reported, this past week, in Colorado. I have seen Commitment Run, at the very bottom of Park City Resort , slide and break off Aspens on the way down. With this background the Snow Safety decision making for the public is vastly different from the Avalanche Forecast for the backcountry. If there is a chance of someone becoming injured they will mitigate the danger. The public makes the assumption that there is no danger and when they read the avalanche forecast the may think some one does not know what they are doing. The Backcountry fore Caster or the Resort snow safety crew.
Neal Krasnick
Fri, 2/19/2016
Some editing is needed for my comment: and I have seen the Commitment Ski Run slide naturally With these personal observations in mind (to replace With this background) The Resort Snow Safety decisions are vastly different from the Backcountry Forecasters.....if there is a chance of someone becoming injured the will mitigate the danger. "Backcountry avalanche Forecaster or the Resort Snow Safety crew. I'm Sorry about the haste of my comments, I know what I want to say but this is not how the comment is always typed.
Neal Krasnick
Fri, 2/19/2016
Some editing is needed for my comment: and I have seen the Commitment Ski Run slide naturally With these personal observations in mind (to replace With this background) The Resort Snow Safety decisions are vastly different from the Backcountry Forecasters.....if there is a chance of someone becoming injured the will mitigate the danger. "Backcountry avalanche Forecaster or the Resort Snow Safety crew. I'm Sorry about the haste of my comments, I know what I want to say but this is not how the comment is always typed.
Neal Krasnick
Fri, 2/19/2016
Drew, Once again, a wonderful piece. Thank you. In my mind, this is the thing that saves lives and is, perhaps, the most important "skill" to have. I value your interest and perspective.
Tyler Cruickshank
Sat, 2/20/2016
Great piece here and I deeply appreciate the added video. I'm just beginning the journey into becoming a backcountry skier and have been scouring all the info you can find and will be tacking classes with the UAC. This particular subject is eye opening, especially as the snow pack has healed from earlier this winter and is now undergoing huge changes with warming. This really got my attention and what stands out most is how the low frequency high risk factor applies to almost every facet of life. I appreciate the differentiation of NDT & DT, and Mr. Grahm's incouragement to slow down and to take the time to assess the consequences. Great article, thank you. Gratefully, Eddie
Eddie,
Sun, 2/21/2016