Blog: Winter Forecast

Bruce Tremper

It's thattime of year when everyone asks me, "What kind of winter are we going to have."

I always give the same answer: "We will get what we get. If anyonecould reliably forecast long term weather, theycould be fabulously wealthy."

"But this is a big El Nino year. It's supposed to be HUGE!"

"Nope," I reply, "Neither El Nino nor La Nina have any correlation to northern Utah because we are on the boundary between the two regimes. It's supposed to be wet to the south of us and dry to the north of us. Here,we'll just get what we get."

"But the Farmer's Almanac said...."

"Sorry," I reply, "All the scientific, statistical studies of the Farmer's Almanac along with everythingyou read on the covers of the tabloids in the grocery store show absolutely no correlation. We'll just get what we get."

So sorry to break it to you once again. Just relax and enjoy whatever comes.

Bruce Tremper

I agree when we have a weak or moderate El Niño which has no statistical impact on the Wasatch Front and northern Utah weather, slight increase towards a wet winter in Southern Utah. A strong El Niño like the one forecasted this winter does statistically increase the chance of above normal precipitation for the Wasatch Front and Northern Utah, greatly increases the chances for a wet winter in southern Utah. The last 5 strong El Niño events were 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983, and 1997-1998. In these years the Alta UDOT November through April snowfall averaged 554" which is above the long term average of 490".
Scot Chipman
Tue, 9/29/2015