A persistent weak layer (PWL) of October and November facets makes up the base of the snowpack on west-north-east facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. In these areas, it is unlikely, but not impossible, to trigger an avalanche 1-2 feet deep and 100 feet wide. Cracking and collapsing are become less common and snow tests hint at slow stabilization, yet persistent weak layers come by their name honestly. It is true that in some areas, the snowpack has warmed and become isothermal and this may end up being a good thing...but facets are facets and it's just part of their character: they are just hard to trust. The last reported avalanche in this layering was last Sunday.

Dave Kelly went out to look at last Saturday's avalanche in the East Bowl of Silver Fork and found a slowly stabilizing snowpack. We agree that the structure remains poor and we are not ready to proclaim it healed or dormant. His observation can be found HERE...and a photo of the snow structure is below. I'd still recommend caution if you're traveling through steep terrain with this poor structure.

Wet sluffs, wet slabs, and natural glide avalanches will start to become a problem today through early next week. I've always felt uncomfortable forecasting wet avalanches and feel even less comfortable forecasting wet avalanches in mid-December. My recommendation - to keep it simple - is to pull the calendar off the wall and just observe what you're seeing and note how it feels under your feet. If you're seeing wet rollerballs and loose point releases and/or the snow starts to feel punchy and unconsolidated, head for a different aspect or low angle terrain.

Full depth glide avalanches can be expected in the usual terrain of Mill B South, Broads, and Stairs Gulch of BCC and in the upper reaches of Porter Fork in MCC.