Provo Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT

I'll be giving a free Avalanche Awareness talk at the SLC REI tomorrow night at 7pm. Registration at http://www.rei.com/stores/19 is recommended.

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

We have Pockets ofCONSIDERABLE. Most accidents and fatalities occur during a Considerable hazard. Particularly in conditions like these - soft and hard wind slabs over the weakest snow in years. Human triggered slides up to 12-18"' deep - even remotely triggered - are likely in steep wind drifted north through easterly terrain. You may get lucky in this terrain, but I doubt it. Keep an eye on the wet activity today with daytime warming.

You can find plenty of safe and enjoyable breakable crust and unsupportable sugar snow on slopes less steep than 30 degrees. Remember you may be able to trigger an avalanche on top of yourself from the flatter terrain - be aware of what's above...

CURRENT CONDITIONS

Skies are clear. Mountain temperatures are in the 30s. The west to northwesterly winds have relaxed a bit from yesterday and are generally less than 15mph. 8200' winds are light. Snow surface conditions are a mix of wind, sun, and rain crust with patches of soft settled powder thrown in to keep morale high. Southerly aspects offer something that pretends to be supportable corn.

RECENT ACTIVITY

Received zero reports from the backcountry other than a loose wet natural in the Red Pine Chute (northerly at 7800') in Little Cottonwood Canyon and some speculation on the Scott's Bowl slide from the day before. Scott's Peak lies along the Park City ridge line just north and west of Guardsman Pass and the Park City Mountain Resort. The bowl itself sits at 10,000', east facing, and is heavily wind affected. The PCMR snow safety teams found it to be 2' deep and 150' wide running near to the flats. They now believe - and I agree - that the slide was more likely remotely triggered from a party walking the ridge line above.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

No reports of activity yesterday indicates nothing but the fact that few people were out. The buried facets/surface hoar/depth hoar are not going away and the rain/rime crust above will likely only serve to create larger slides once loaded again. Naturals from Friday night will likely result in "repeaters". I'll explain - there was so much weak snow in the snowpack that the slides then (and others yet to slide) didn't clean out all the "junk" snow. It will, however, serve to keep the remaining snow thin - a precursor to continued/enhanced rotting/weakening of what's left.

In the mean-time, areas most prone to avalanching are the wind drifted slopes from late last week and perhaps yesterday. These are northerly through easterly facing slopes at the mid and upper elevations. Collapsing and remotely triggered slides are again likely. These are unmanageable conditions but for avoidance.

The bottom line for me - For now, I will not be jumping into any steep northerly through easterly wind loaded terrain period. I don't trust it.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 12 hours.

Another day, another heat-wave. Small wet push-a-lanches will still be possible with daytime sun and warming.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Another nice day on the horizon. Look for temps to soar into the mid 30s at 10,000', the mid-40s at 8000'. Winds will be westerly at 15-20mph. We'll see a meaningless brush-by Thursday night with a weak splitting storm to follow on Saturday. The ridge rebuilds for next week.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

If you trigger an avalanche in the backcountry - especially if you are adjacent to a ski area – please call the following teams to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Salt Lake – Alta Central (801-742-2033)

Ogden – Snowbasin Patrol Dispatch (801-620-1017)

Provo – Sundance Patrol Dispatch (801-223-4150)

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30: 888-999-4019 option 8.

Daily observations are frequentlypostedby 10 pm each evening.

Subscribe to the daily avalanche advisory e-mail clickHERE.

UDOT canyon closuresUDOTat (801) 975-4838

Wasatch Powderbird Guides are suspending the opening of helicopter skiing operations. Once we have enough snow cover, daily updates to this bloghttp://powderbird.blogspot.com/will begin for the 2011-2012 season.

You have the opportunity to participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submittingavalanche and snow observations. You can also call us at 801-524-5304 or 800-662-4140, or email by clickingHERE

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We will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling..

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.