Ogden Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Drew Hardesty

CURRENT CONDITIONS

The way the old timers tell it out across the plains of North Dakota, whenever the wind stops, all the livestock fall over. Kobernik put together a first rate tutorial to explain the wind event yesterday, found here. The punishing winds seemingly moved snow in all directions at once, cross-loading gullies, blowing snow up slope into starting zones, scouring other starting zones, depositing drifts well below tree-line, and certainly mid-slope.

Skies are clear. Conditions have relaxed to some extent and the slowing winds should be mostly relegated to the higher terrain. The 15-20mph ridgetop winds remain from the northeast as the storm spirals off to the east. Temperatures are currently in the low to mid 20s though they’ll skyrocket to near freezing at 10,000’ under a building ridge of high pressure.

Skiing and riding conditions? …….not too bad.

RECENT ACTIVITY

Some predictable naturalling occurred with the wind transport, though reports of sensitivity to human triggers were all across the map. Control teams in the same canyon commented “stubborn” and “sensitive” not a half-mile away. Keeping with the pattern, we skiied off the top of Red Baldy in LCC without incident, but ski cut out a 18” deep and 20’ wide pocket well below treeline in a steeper treed convex rollover. Others reported wind slabs breaking 4-10” deep and about 50’ wide.

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 12 hours.

Direct sun and rapidly warming temperatures may help to unglue some of the lingering wind drifts from yesterday. It’s a viscosity thing – while it may seem that many of the drifts were welded in yesterday, the heat will slowly increase the stresses on the snowpack and you may be the crowbar to pull the thing out. Continue to approach fat pillowy steep terrain with caution. Remember! This includes crossloaded gullies, steeper rollovers at the mid and low elevations, and steep mid-slope fetches.

Cornices:

Erratic winds and gusts allowed for some erratic cornice development; still, watch for increasingly sensitive cornice failure with the rapid warming over the next day or two. Give the yawing waves a wide berth – the stiffening arcs may well break behind you.

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 12 hours.

It’s not very low density snow sitting on a slick underlying rain crust, but it’ll be the first time the dry cold snow will see direct sun and warming temps. Human triggered wet sluffs and slabs will be likely over the next couple of days as we see ridgetop temperatures skyrocket toward the mid to upper 30s. Wind and cloud cover will not be around as mitigating factors – exercise caution – or better yet – avoid - the sunny slopes with daytime warming.

THREAT #3
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

These should not be forgotten. These layers have begun to heal, but I’m not ready to pronounce these layers from early to mid-February over and done. It’ll still be possible to trigger one of these persistent slabs primarily in the mid-elevation bands in the northerly terrain, particularly in areas north of Big Cottonwood Canyon. Ski and slope cuts are not effective here.

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

We’ll have clear skies and temperatures pushing into the 30s at 10,000’ and the mid 40s at 8000’. Moderate northeast winds will become light and variable by early afternoon. The ridge of high pressure persists through at least mid-week with a storm expected perhaps Thursday that’ll bring cooler temps and perhaps some snow.

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

SLC: Please contact Alta Central (801-742-2033) if you trigger a large avalanche in the backcountry, especially if you are adjacent to a ski area, to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Ogden: Please contact Snowbasin ski patrol (801620-1000/1017) if you trigger a large avalanche in the backcountry, especially if you are adjacent to a ski area, to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Provo: Please contact Sundance ski patrol (801 -223-4150) if you trigger a large avalanche in the backcountry, especially if you are adjacent to a ski area, to alert them to the slide and whether anyone is missing or not. Rescue teams can be exposed to significant hazard when responding to avalanches, and do not want to do so when unneeded. Thanks.

Discount Lift tickets: Ski Utah, Backcountry.com, Alta, Deer Valley, Park City, The Canyons, Wolf Mountain, Snowbasin, Beaver Mountain, Brighton, Sundance, and Solitude have donated a limited number of tickets for sale at discounted prices.

Wasatch Powderbird Guides flight plan.

Dawn Patrol Forecast Hotline, updated by 05:30:888-999-4019 option 8.

Daily observations are frequently posted by 10 pm each evening.

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UDOT canyon closures UDOT at (801) 975-4838

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The information in this advisory is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

I will update this forecast tomorrow morning. Thanks for calling.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.