When you blow a weather forecast, often a blown avalanche forecast is quick to follow.  When this happens, you can almost be sure that right after the forecast is published the phone will start ringing off the hook with all of your peers letting you know how bad you've screwed up!

Well, I missed the elevated wind speeds today and as I sit here watching every hourly gust increase, I thought some people might be interested in what happened.  It's pretty cool aside from totally screwing up the forecast (and the fresh powder!!  Curses!!).

Usually, free air is able to travel over mountains fairly uninhibited.

However, if there is a layer of stable air not so far above the ridgetops, the air is forced through a smaller opening and has no choice but to increase.  This is a basic venturi effect.

Looking at a model sounding, you can see the layer of stable air yet the model indicates only wind speeds of 20 knots.  You need to pick up on the stable air to clue in that winds could be stronger then 20 knots if mountains are present.  What is disappointing is that this is almost the same situation that caught us off guard with a wind event about a week ago.  (Thanks to Jim Steenburgh for all his top notch weather model products from the University of Utah, they are considered to be the best by many people)