Logan Avalanche Advisory

Forecaster: Toby Weed

BOTTOM LINE

Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)


Danger Rose Tutorial

Again, the danger will rise to level 3 or Considerable as saturated snow softens with daytime heating. If you venture onto steep slopes with melt softened saturated snow it is likely that you will trigger a dangerous wet avalanche. Natural wet avalanches and cornice falls are possible, and you still could trigger a dangerous deep slab avalanche up to several feet deep, especially in upper elevation areas with thin coverage. Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding, and conservative decision making will be essential once again today in the backcountry.

CURRENT CONDITIONS

You'll find very moist or saturated snow conditions, with only a superficial veneer crust in the morning, since overnight temperatures stayed well above freezing again. Lower and mid elevation slopes and meadows are now easily softened by the daytime warming, and you can easily get mired down and stuck in the muck if you venture off the beaten path. Upper elevation slopes could remain crusty and supportable with cloud cover and southwest wind today. The 8400' Tony Grove Snotel reports a steamy 41 degrees this morning. There's 72 inches of total snow at the site, containing 85% of normal water for the date. The Campbell Scientific Logan Peak weather station at 9700' reports a cooler 34 degrees and south-southwest winds averaging around 25 mph this morning after posting average wind speeds in the thirties for a couple hours late last night..

RECENT ACTIVITY

There were a couple close calls last week, in which riders triggered dangerous deep slab avalanches. I checked out a rider triggered hard slab avalanche in the Rodeo Grounds on the east side of Logan Peak , and a couple riders amazingly emerged unscathed from a very large hard slab they triggered on the east side of Double Top Mountain (otherwise known as Gun Sight) on Thursday 3-8-2012.. I went up to take a look on Wednesday and updated the report.... posted HERE

Otherwise, we haven't received reports of any new avalanches for a few days.

(go to our current conditions page for more details on the local activity and reports of many other recent avalanches and conditions across the mountains of Utah)

THREAT #1
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 10 hours.

Wet avalanches will again become more likely during the heat of midday, and you should avoid steep slopes with melt-softened saturated snow. Mountain overnight temperatures are not dropping below freezing, in many cases remaining well above. Without a good refreeze, we'll find only a thin veneer crust on the surface in the mornings, and this will rapidly deteriorate. With now saturated weak layers, generally poor snow structure, and a weakening slab, dangerous wet slab avalanches are possible, especially on steep slopes with generally shallow snow cover. Cloud cover and southwest winds may help to keep upper elevation slopes cool, but areas that are more sheltered from the winds and mid and lower elevation slopes will heat up and soften up pretty quickly this morning...

THREAT #2
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Depth hoar and thin persistent weak layers still plague the basal and mid snowpack in many areas, and you might trigger a dangerous deep slab avalanche, particularly in areas with generally shallow and weak snow...Avoid shallow or rocky terrain at upper and mid elevations, and keep in mind that you are most likely to trigger a very dangerous deep slab avalanche from an area where the slab layer is relatively thin. Deep slab avalanches up to around 3 feet deep may be quite easy to initiate in some areas, and you might trigger one remotely, from a distance, or worse from below. More likely, they'll be quite stubborn, not releasing until you hit the so called "sweet spot", which could occur even though a slope already has many tracks in it...

THREAT #3
WHERE PROBABILITY SIZE TREND
      Over the next 24 hours.

Cornices will sag and become more sensitive with midday warmth, and some may naturally calve-off. A cornice fall could trigger a dangerous hard or wet slab avalanche on a steep slope below....

MOUNTAIN WEATHER

Expect 8500' high temperatures of around 45 and sustained warm southwest winds today, with clouds and snow showers likely, but little in the way of accumulation expected... It will be cloudy and warm again tonight, and expect increasing southwest winds. It'll be warm and even more windy tomorrow, with snow and rain likely in the mountains, and an inch or two of accumulation possible at upper elevations.... Temperatures should finally drop well below below freezing with a storm on Saturday night and several inches of fresh snow are forecast along with continued windy conditions.....

GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS

Please consider a donation to your favorite non-profit –The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center. The Utah Avalanche Center depends on contributions from users like you to support our work.....

Please send us your observations from the backcountry especially if you see or trigger an avalanche, but also even if you don't.. go to avalanche and snow observations. You can also call me directly at 435-757-7578 or leave us a message at our office, 801-524-5304.... And, you can always send us a simple email by clicking HERE

I recently published some historical photos of the Huge Wood Camp avalanche from 2-20-1986.... Click HERE

I will update this advisory by around 7:30 in the morning on Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays, and Saturdays.....

This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done.  This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:

The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list.