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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Mark Staples
Issued by Mark Staples for
Sunday, March 24, 2024
It's been over to a week since 2' of snow containing 3.0" of snow water equivalent (SWE) fell in the Abajo/Blue Mountains and the snowpack has largely adjusted to the load. This means that human triggered avalanches are unlikely but not impossible. Much of this new snow went through a melt-freeze cycle during the week and should be stable.
Some snow started falling early Sunday morning, but only a few inches are expected. The main avalanche threat will be soft slabs of wind drifted snow which will likely be small and shallow. If more snow falls than expected and winds increase, they could be larger and deeper.
By midweek when the sun appears in full force again, expect small loose wet avalanches which should occur predictably as the snow softens and becomes wet.
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Weather and Snow
Weather
Unsettled weather Sunday through Tuesday could bring an inch or two of snow each day. Winds from the NW could pick up late Sunday and then sunshine should reappear on Wednesday. A broad trough will affect the western U.S. later in the week. It doesn't look like it will bring snow to southern Utah just yet, but it could evolve into a similar system that delivered heavy snowfall last weekend to the Abajos. We'll be watching how this storm system unfolds.
General Conditions:
The snowpack is mostly frozen after the snow became wet during warm, sunny weather last week. N and NW facing slopes at the highest elevations may still have some soft dry powder.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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