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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, February 22, 2025
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. Human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are LIKELY. Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.
A MODERATE danger exists on west and southeast facing slopes, and on lower elevation, northerly aspects. Human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are POSSIBLE. Continue to exercise caution in these areas, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass.
Most south and southwest facing terrain has LOW danger. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features are possible. This includes loose wet slides as the day heats up. Avoid steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
The Utah Avalanche Center is issuing a statewide Special Avalanche Bulletin after a series of storms in the last week has left a thick blanket of snow at all elevations, creating excellent powder riding conditions while also elevating the backcountry avalanche danger. In Moab, we haven't received significant snow in a week, but conditions remain dangerous. Don't let the fresh snow and sunshine influence your decision-making - careful snowpack and terrain analysis are required for backcountry travel. Fortunately, there are great riding and travel conditions away from avalanche terrain on slopes less than 30° in steepness.
Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Grand County plowed the road on Tuesday. It remains slick and snow packed. AWD and good tires recommended.
Grooming Conditions: All trails were groomed yesterday.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 0" 72 Hour Snow: 2" Season Total Snow: 82" Depth at Gold Basin: 40"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NW 10 Temp: 13° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 72%
Weather
Skies are clear, northwest winds are light, and mountain temperatures are in the low to mid teens. It's going to be a gorgeous day in the mountains with sunny skies, continued light northwesterly winds, and high temperatures creeping up into the low to mid 30's. More of the same is on tap for the foreseeable future with increasingly warm temperatures each day.
General Conditions
This past week has seen the best turning and riding of the season and it's been great to see the community getting after it. To recap, 2 inches fell on Feb 11, followed by 15 inches at 2.5 inches of Snow Water Equivalent on Feb 14, a very significant load for the underlying, fragile snowpack. Remarkably, no natural avalanches have been observed but the snowpack has been touchy. Widespread collapsing last weekend has become more isolated, or localized, but the snowpack is still talking. See this observation from Alex Mudler. The 2 inches that fell on Feb 11 quickly faceted and became a widespread weak layer on all aspects. This has since quieted down, but deeper faceted layers in the snowpack remain very reactive on northerly aspects (see video below). Weak snow exists around the compass and avalanches remain possible on all aspects (see this observation from Travis Nauman), but spatial variability and thin snow cover make the problem very isolated on south facing terrain.
Another 2-4 inches fell on Thursday bringing a nice refresh to the snow surface. Winds have been mostly light to moderate since then but some wind effect has been observed at upper elevations. And finally, the sun was out enough yesterday to dampen the snow surface and many solar aspects will be crusted over this morning. Stick to low angle, northerly aspects for the safest and best turning and riding.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Valentine's Day storm has built a dense, cohesive slab on top of our weak, underlying snowpack. On northerly aspects, the entire snowpack is faceted through with varying degrees of hardness, but a layer of fist hard facets exist directly beneath the slab. Outward signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing have decreased significantly but they are still being observed, and stability tests remain reactive. The bottom line is that human triggered avalanches up to 2 feet deep or more, failing on this weak layer remain possible to likely. The danger is most prevalent on northerly aspects near treeline but don't think you can outsmart it by changing elevation. For the foreseeable future, I'll be avoiding all slopes steeper than 30 degrees on all northerly aspects.
As you wrap around to west, the problem still exists and it's a fine line between shady and sunny. Many westerly aspects still present as northerly if there are trees to provide shade. West facing slopes should be considered guilty until proven innocent, and a slope by slope analysis is required.
Last weekend, a reactive layer of facets was observed on a south facing slope and yesterday, Travis Nauman found a reactive layer beneath a crust on an upper elevation SW aspect. In my travels this week I have not found the problem to be widespread although facet crust combinations do exist with very weak snow near the ground. If you approach a steep slope that has good coverage, it's worth digging down to have a look at the structure. If you can find a slab on top of facets you should reconsider your objective.
Reactive stability test on a SW aspect above treeline. Travis Nauman photo.
The bottom line is that our snowpack this season is tenuous and weak, and it still remains quite immature. This is the season to dial it back.
Photo illustrates weak, faceted layer underneath the most recent snow on a WNW aspect at 10,800' Extended column tests produced results of ECTP 21 and ECTP 14 on this weak, faceted layer.
Additional Information
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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