Forecaster Blogs

Blog: March 1st - How Bad is it So Far - 03/2/2015 - Bruce Tremper
The percent of normal for March 1st for the western U.S.  As you can see, we are doing much better than the West Coast but we're still around half of normal.  Here is a series of plots for various SNOTEL sites in the Wasatch. I plotted the average (blue), the lowest year on record (red) and this season (green.)  The lower elevation SNOTEL sites have much less snow than the lowest snow year on record.  The higher elevation plots are about tied for the record low.  So even though Utah has about half or normal for the season, we are still close to a record low, which speaks to the consistency...


Blog: Riding the White Wave; User Friendly Avalanches - 02/8/2015 - Toby Weed
Riders triggered over a dozen sizable avalanches in the Tony Grove Area midweek February 4 and 5, and once again a couple people were probably pretty dang lucky in the Logan Zone.  Although impressive looking slides, two feet deep and in some cases, wider than a football field, these were soft, slow-running, and as it turns out, rather user-friendly avalanches.   Practicing avalanche rescue in a nice sled triggered avalanche in the Tony Grove Area on 2-7-2015 Skilled riders might've outrun these avalanches, and no one got hurt  this time, but future avalanches on the same slopes could be...


Blog: The Brett Kobernik Skunkworks - 01/26/2015 - Bruce Tremper
I dropped a vehicle off at Brett Kobernik's house yesterday and caught him working in his garage.  I thought others would be amazed, as I always am, in a look behind the scenes of the skunkworks of the Utah Avalanche Center and the genius of Brett Kobernik.   Here, on the left, he has a couple of motorcycles converted into snow bikes with a snowmobile track on the back and a ski in the front.  He usually rides these instead of snowmobiles because they are so much more nimble and easier to get unstuck.  On the right, he has built a prototype of a mobile weather station with technical...


Blog: C-PST: Request for more Data from UAC Observers - 01/23/2015 - Hardesty for Gallatin NF Avalanche Forecaster Eric Knoff
Request for more data sets for Eric Knoff in the Gallatin NF Av Ctr ​From the other day - PST (Propagation Saw Tests) tend to have a higher "false stable" ratio than ECTs (Extended Column Tests) but may be preferable when one has a deeper weakness of concern.   Eric Knoff (retired Snowbird) and current Gallatin NF Avalanche Center forecaster wrote a paper on horizontal pit-wall PSTs and published it at this fall's ISSW.  His data indicate that CPSTs share similar critical cut lengths as standard PSTs, with 75% of critical cut lengths falling within 10 cm of each other.  Something to consider...


Blog: High Risk Low Frequency Events by Gordon Graham - 01/23/2015 - Hardesty
Deep Slab Instability by Gordon Graham.  Low Probability High Consequence avalanche conditions to a 'T'.  Trust me.    


Blog: Practicing Companion Rescue - 01/9/2015 - UAC Logan
        Everyone who enjoys the snow in the backcountry should practice Companion Avalanche Rescue.  If you get caught in an avalanche, your best hope for survival lies in the hands of your companions.   A bit of practice will make your crew more efficient and faster in a critical race against time.   The seconds and minutes you'll save if someone is buried could be the difference between life and death.     This video is not meant to be a stand-alone resource.  Many more in-depth descriptions of the companion rescue process exist, but we recommend that you follow up your research and reading...


Blog: Drift into Failure...or, Mathematics and a Few Thoughts on Risk - 12/31/2014 - Drew Hardesty
What is your Level of Acceptable Risk?  How did you determine this?  Some will center-punch Superior on a CONSIDERABLE danger while others feel happy going to Powder Park everyday.  Everyone is different and it's insulting at worst and a waste of time at best to look askance at others who are on either end of the pendulum. It's - how shall we say - inelegant to look upon some as suicidal and others as boring and unfulfilled.   The key points here are  To be aware of your level of acceptable risk Understand factors that may influence your risk taking Find others who have a similar level of...


Blog: Avalanche Watches and Warnings - 12/31/2014 - Hardesty and Tremper
Confused about the terms Watch and Warning?  You're not alone.  The terms Watch and Warning have been used by the National Weather Service for many years to warn the public and media about especially dangerous weather that is expected, imminent or occurring. Since we have been co-located with the National Weather Service office since 1980, we have always utilized  Watch and Warnings to warn about especially dangerous avalanche conditions.  It also helps to reach the public that wouldn't otherwise get avalanche information our avalanche phone lines or website.  The Purpose of Avalanche...


Blog: Weekend Avalanche Preview 12-12-2014 - 12/12/2014 - Bruce Tremper
With a storm coming in for the weekend, it's extremely important to map the pre-existing snow to know if the either wind blown snow and new snow will overload any weak layers.  In this case, the weak layer will be the present snow surface.  The long period of clear skies this past week or more has created very weak snow on the surface, which we call near-surface faceted snow as well as surface hoar.  The strong sun created slick sun crusts on the sun exposed slopes.  So here is the general snow surface pattern by aspect and elevation:       Here's a good recent video from Brett Kobernik:  ...


Blog: Quick and easy avalanche rescue practice - 12/11/2014 - Toby Weed
We all need  to take the time to practice with our avalanche rescue equipment...  It's easy to do, doesn't take much time, helps to make sure our equipment is functioning correctly, and could go along way towards saving lives in the backcountry. Here's a short video we did of our practice in the Tony Grove Area yesterday, (12-10-2014)


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