Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Uintas Area Mountains Issued by Craig Gordon for Sunday - January 8, 2017 - 5:11am
bottom line

In the wind zone, at and above treeline, the avalanche danger will rise to HIGH as the storm materializes. Dangerous, human triggered and natural avalanches are VERY LIKELY on steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those facing the north half of the compass, and particularly those with an easterly component to their aspect. Once triggered, today's avalanches have the potential to break deep and wide and can get out of hand quickly, resulting in a dangerous avalanche.

You'll find a CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger on steep wind drifted slopes at mid elevations and human triggered avalanches are PROBABLE.

There are plenty of safe options out there today. Most lower and mid elevation south facing slopes and low angle terrain, like big, open meadows, with no steep slopes above or adjacent to where you're riding offer LOW avalanche danger.
avalanche warning

THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM MST WEDNESDAY.

* AFFECTED AREA...FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE, BEAR RIVER RANGE, SOUTHEAST IDAHO, UINTA

MOUNTAINS, AND MANTI-SKYLINE PLATEAU.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA WILL RISE TO HIGH AND TOWARD EXTREME BY MONDAY.

* REASON/IMPACTS...EXPECTED HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS, COMBINED WITH RAIN ON SNOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL

CREATE WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS ON MANY ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS. NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE CERTAIN.

THOSE WITHOUT EXCELLENT AVALANCHE SKILLS SHOULD AVOID BEING ON OR UNDERNEATH STEEP SLOPES. EVEN AVALANCHES RELEASING OFF STEEP ROOFS MAY BE DANGERS IN THE URBAN AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

THIS WARNING DOES NOT APPLY TO SKI AREAS WHERE AVALANCHE HAZARD REDUCTION MEASURES ARE PERFORMED.
current conditions

A little ripple rolled through the region late yesterday, delivering an evenly dispersed 2" of dense snow across the range. Currently, under mostly cloudy skies, it's quite balmy with most stations reporting temperatures in the mid to upper 20's. After a brief lull last night, southwest winds are ramping up, blowing steadily in the 30's along the ridges. Our five star riding conditions tanked overnight, but you can still find soft, settled snow on wind sheltered shady slopes.

Real time wind, snow, and temperatures for the Uinta's are found here.

Mark was west of Mirror Lake Highway yesterday and reports very stable snow and great riding. His insights are found here.

Additional snowpack observations and trip reports are found here.
recent activity

No new avalanche activity to report.

A full list of recent Uinta avalanche activity is found here.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

A warm, wet, windy system is going to slam into our region and it's gonna get pretty dicey the next few days. Due to the strong winds forecast, I suspect drifting will occur in unusual locations and lower downslope than we normally see. As the storm materializes, this mornings manageable slabs are gonna become this afternoons big brother, and avalanches will begin breaking much deeper and wider than you might expect. In addition they'll be packing a punch. It doesn't mean I can't ride... it does mean I'll want to steer clear of steep, wind drifted terrain and be on the look out for and avoid any rounded, fat, pillows of snow, especially if they feel or sound hollow like a drum.

Even without much fresh snow to work with, Ted found shallow wind drifts in Gold Hill, sensitive to his additional weight yesterday. his trip report is found here.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

In general, I'm really psyched with our snowpack structure and it's looking very promising. However, we've got a couple of buried weak layers in our pack and the upcoming storm is going to stress these fragile crystals and really put 'em to the test. Sure, many slopes are getting comfortable in their own skin, but I think I'll avoid any steep, rocky, upper elevation slope facing the north half of the compass. To me they're guilty until proven otherwise.


JG's pit profile clearly illustrates the midpack weakness we're concerned with given a very active weather pattern this week. He was in Weber canyon yesterday and his trip report is found here.
weather

A very mild, moist, and strong southwesterly flow prevails through today, bringing periods of heavy and increasingly dense snow. Southwest winds crank in the 40's and 50's along the ridges and high temperatures bump into the upper 30's. Snow changes to lower elevation rain during the day, below about 8000 feet. Snow continues tonight through tomorrow, with snow levels falling tomorrow with the passage of a cold front. 12"-18" of snow is a good bet with this first round and then a brief lull Tuesday, with another round of snow and strong winds Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Click here for a great viddy describing the upcoming weather.
general announcements

Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please participate in the creation of our own community avalanche advisory by submitting snow and avalanche conditions. You can call me directly at 801-231-2170, email [email protected]

The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM on Monday January 9th.