BOTTOM LINE
Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)
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Danger Rose Tutorial
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At mid and upper elevations the avalanche danger is MODERATE today and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, wind drifted slopes, especially those with an easterly component to their aspect.
A MODERATE avalanche danger still exists for scarier avalanches, which break into deeper buried weak layers of snow near the ground. Dangerous, human triggered avalanches are possible today, especially in steep, rocky, upper elevation terrain that faces the north half of the compass with a shallow weak snowpack.
The avalanche danger is generally LOW on most south facing slopes and terrain at low elevations. |
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CURRENT CONDITIONS |
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A weak storm system slid in from the north overnight, producing a thin band of clouds but no new snow. Northerly winds are non issue this morning, blowing less than 15 mph even along the high peaks. Current temperatures are in the low teens at 10,000’ and near 20 degrees at the trailheads. Saturday morning’s quick burst of snow benefited terrain from Trial Lake northward and most areas of the North Slope received 4”-6” of dense, spongy snow. Total snow depths still only hover right around 3’ and in most upper elevation terrain the snowpack remains inadequately shallow.
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RECENT ACTIVITY |
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No new avalanche activity to report.
Click here for links to real time winds and snowfall amounts. |
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THREAT #1 |
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PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
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Over the next
24 hours.
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Yesterday’s new snow, coupled with very strong westerly winds quickly formed sensitive soft slabs in upper elevation leeward terrain. While most of these drifts probably relaxed overnight, there could still a few that remain sensitive to the weight of a rider. In addition to these fresh slabs, we now have two storms worth of snow resting on top of weak, sugary, near surface facets that formed prior to the New Years Eve storm. As the snow starts to settle it’ll become more cohesive and slab-like and today’s avalanches may break into this weak layer, producing a deeper slide than you might expect.
The stability pattern is getting a little trickier, but you don’t have to roll the dice and hope for the best. Remember- gather information by digging quick hand pits and tweaking small test slopes of similar aspect, elevation and slope angle to what you want to ride, rather than blindly charging into a steep bowl or chute.
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THREAT #2 |
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| WHERE |
PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
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Over the next
24 hours.
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This forecast wouldn’t be complete without a mention of our problem child- the rotten snow near the ground. In general we’re finding very weak snow, especially in steep, rocky, upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass (click here for a pit profile). While it'll come back to haunt us once it starts storming again, the good news in the short term is- what little structure the mid portion of our snowpack once had has deteriorated over time and in many places the pack is becoming a bottomless facet factory. The bad news is- there are plenty of slopes that have some strength or “body” left in the snowpack and these would be the types of places where you could still trigger a deep, dangerous avalanche. While pockety in nature and becoming harder to trigger, the consequences of misjudging this type of avalanche condition still remain quite serious. Unless you’ve got a good handle on the snowpack and its stability, you’re best bet is to continue avoiding steep, shady, upper elevation terrain.
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MOUNTAIN WEATHER |
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High pressure builds over the region the next few days producing mostly sunny skies, light winds and warming temperatures. Highs today should reach near 30 degrees at 8,000’ and in the low to mid 20’s at 10,000’. Overnight lows dip into the low teens. North and northwest winds remain pretty mellow, blowing less than 20 mph along the high ridges. There’s a chance of a mid week storm, but snow amounts look meager at best and we return to high and dry weather for the latter half of the week.
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GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS |
The information in this advisory expires 24 hours after the date and time posted, but will be updated by 7:00 AM on Wednesday January 6, 2010.
If you’re getting out and about and trigger an avalanche or see anything interesting please drop me an email at craig@utahavalanchecenter.org or call 801-231-2170
Also, now is a great time to schedule one of our free avalanche awareness presentations for your group or club. Email or call me and we’ll get you booked before things get too crazy. |
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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. |
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This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:
The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list. |
