Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Saturday - February 17, 2018 - 6:59am
bottom line

The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes above about 9500' in elevation that face north through east. Human triggered avalanches are likely in the terrain mentioned. The avalanche danger is much lower outside of this terrain.




current conditions

The storm on Thursday added 8 to 10" of new snow in the Central Skyline from about Pleasant Creek south through Manti Canyon. The top of Fairview Canyon recieved a bit less as did areas on the southern end of the Skyline. West wind blew during the storm and continued on Friday forming some large fresh drifts. Temperatures remained fairly cool on Friday. Riding conditions are as good as they've been so far this year but that's not saying much!!

The wind is still a bit gusty over the ridge tops from the west northwest this morning and temperatures are around 20˚F.
recent activity

There have been a number of snowmobile triggered avalanches in the Ephraim Canyon area. These have all been reported as involving only the new snow and not breaking into old buried weak snow. A couple of these have been triggered from a distance when the riders were not on the slope.

I found two significant avalanches in the Big Horseshoe which released either late Thursday or early Friday. These broke into old weak snow and demonstrate the type of avalanche that people should be most concerned about. DETAILS HERE
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

We have weak snow that formed earlier in the year which makes up a number of different layers down near the ground. We have just recently added up to 10" of new snow on top of the weak snowpack. The wind has also been blowing snow into deep drifts further adding weight to the weak underlying snow. Some natural avalanches have been observed that broke into the buried weak snow. Many slopes that have not avalanched just need a trigger like a person on skis, snowboard or snowmachine.

weather

It looks like another nice day today with plenty of sun and slightly warmer temperatures than Friday. We'll see ridge top highs in the low 30s. The wind looks moderate in speed but will increase and will be shifting to a southwest direction. We'll see increasing clouds and wind on Sunday ahead of the next storm which will move through Sunday night into Tuesday. This storm could bring a foot of snow or so, more details on it in Sunday's advisory.
general announcements

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We will publish full detailed advisories Saturday and Sunday mornings by 7am. We will also be publishing basic avalanche danger ratings & info during the week.

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