Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Craig Gordon for Saturday - March 22, 2014 - 6:18am
bottom line

Overall, the avalanche danger is MODERATE this weekend and human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, wind drifted slopes. While not widespread, avalanches still have the possibility to break deep and wide, especially on steep, rocky, upper elevation terrain facing the north half of the compass.

As the sun bakes the snow surface, the danger of wet avalanches will rise to MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches are possible on steep, sunny slopes with daytime heating.
special announcement

Saturday March 29th will be the last of our regularly scheduled advisories for the 2013-14 season.
current conditions

Skies are overcast, temperatures in the mid to upper 20's, and west-northwest winds are blowing 10-20 mph along the high ridges surrounding the Skyline. Snow surface conditions are a mixed bag and a lot of our terrain got jacked from Tuesday's hurricane force wind event. Damaging snow at nearly every elevation, winds were strong enough to blow bark off the trees. Could be a good day to get the taxes done and wait for the mid week storm to freshen things up.

Darce and Steve were in Seeley Canyon yesterday. Their trip report can be found here.
recent activity

No new avalanche activity to report.
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

While not widespread, there could be a few tired old wind slabs that'll be reactive to the additional weight of a rider today. Lurking on the leeward side of upper elevation ridges and around terrain features like chutes and gullies, these will appear fat and rounded and sound hollow like a drum. Mostly predictable in depth and width, take care that a stiff wind slab doesn't knock you off your feet, especially in steep, unforgiving, high consequence terrain.
Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The good news is, the old weak snow from early in the season has gained some strength, especially where the snowpack is deep. However, where the pack remains shallow, like around bushes and rocks barely hidden under the snow, there are still places where a person may still be able to trigger a large avalanche that breaks to the ground. Steep, rocky slopes facing the north half of the compass remain suspect and should be approached with caution. Chances for triggering a deep scary avalanche this weekend are low but consequences are high.
Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 48 hours
description

The sun is high in the sky and it's intense this time of year, rapidly heating the snow surface. Make sure you have an exit strategy planned when slopes become wet during the heat of the day. Avoid being below steep slopes and in confined terrain such as gullies where wet, cement-like snow can pile up very deeply..
weather

Overcast skies and a few flurries are on tap this morning as weak storm system slides through the region. West and northwest winds gust into the 20's and 30's along the summit and temperatures climb into the mid 30's. Skies should clear later today and overnight lows dip into the upper teens. Warm, dry weather is on tap for Sunday through midweek. A quick hitting storm moves into the area for Wednesday before high pressure returns for next weekend.
general announcements

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory will be updated by 7:00 AM Saturday, March 29th, 2014 or sooner if conditions warrant.