Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Brett Kobernik for Saturday - February 22, 2014 - 7:04am
bottom line

A CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes that face west through north through east. It is not a weekend to be "hillclimbing" on these slopes.




current conditions

The Skyline picked up 3 or 4 inches of snow in a windy storm on Wednesday. Temperatures were cold but have been gradually on the rise. Northwest winds slowed a bit late Friday and have picked up a bit again. They are generally west in direction. Quite a bit of wind damage occurred to the snow surface but sheltered areas still hold nice snow.

recent activity

No new avalanches have been reported since last week's close call when a snowmobiler triggered a very large slide near the Skyline Summit. (photo- Cade Beck) The rider tirggered the slide at the apex of his high mark and was able to ride it most of the way before getting thrown but not buried or injured.

We continue to get views into different areas which unveil the very impressive avalanche cycle that occurred during the big storm two weeks ago. There were many large slides that snapped trees as well as numerous in odd locations such as thicker trees and lower elevations.

Here is the avalanche list that hardly covers a sliver of the terrain that avalanched over the last few weeks:

02/15/2014 Skyline Spring Creek Snowmobiler 5' 1/4 mile Northeast 9900 Depth Hoar Details
02/13/2014 Skyline North Creek Natural 2' 50 Northwest 8000 Facets Details
02/12/2014 Skyline Lost Creek Reservoir Snowmobiler North 9600 Details
02/11/2014 Skyline Boulger Canyon Snowmobiler 2' 100 North Details
02/10/2014 Skyline Skyline Mine Road Natural 3' 1/2 mile North 8700 New Snow/Old Snow Interface Details
02/10/2014 Skyline Big Drift/Skyline Summit Unknown unknown Northeast 10000 Details
02/10/2014 Skyline GE Hill/Skyline Summit Details
02/10/2014 Skyline Skyline Regionwide Avalanche Cycle Natural 4' 500 Northeast 9800 Ground Interface Details
02/9/2014 Skyline Seeley Creek Natural Northeast 10500 Facets Details
02/9/2014 Skyline South Fork Birch Creek Natural Northwest 10100 Facets Details
02/9/2014 Skyline Chokecherry Ridge Natural North 9700 Facets Details
02/9/2014 Skyline Huntington Reservior Snowmobiler 4' 300 Northeast 9600 Facets Details
02/9/2014 Skyline Huntington Canyon Natural Facets Details
02/9/2014 Skyline South Fork North Creek Natural North 10000 Facets Details
02/9/2014 Skyline North Fork Natural North 10000 Facets Details
02/9/2014 Skyline Blue Slide Fork Natural North 10000 Facets Details
02/9/2014 Skyline Pleasant Creek Natural Facets Details
02/8/2014 Skyline Electric Lake Natural 3' 250 North 9400 Facets Details
Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

As time goes on, the chances for triggering one of these large slides decreases but in no way should you trust any steep slope on the more north half of the compass. The weak layer is now "bridged" with a thick, strong slab of snow. I call it bridged because the weak snow is below the strong snow. I don't like a bridge because I don't know exactly the spots where it may break and I'll trigger something into the weak snow. The most pronounced danger is above around 8500'. Below that, the snowpack is very locked up after becoming wet and then freezing.

There are more thoughts, photos and videos on the deep slab issue HERE.

Darce Trotter also submitted some thoughts HERE

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

The combination of a little new snow and some wind have, of course, formed some fresh drifts. Most of these are "manageable" but a number of lee slopes will be drifted in pretty deep and could be dangerous. More importantly, on these lee slopes, this added weight from the new drifts will just stress the "bridging" over the weak snow even more.

weather

We'll see mostly clear skies Saturday and Sunday with ridgetop temperatures up around 30 today and a bit warmer on Sunday. Ridgetop westerly winds will be in the moderate speed category today and slow slightly on Sunday. The next storm looks like it will be sometime later next week. Perhaps around Thursday.

general announcements

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory will be updated by 7:00 AM Saturday, March 1st, 2014 or sooner if conditions warrant.