Avalanche Advisory
Advisory: Skyline Area Mountains Issued by Craig Gordon for Saturday - February 15, 2014 - 5:26am
bottom line

The avalanche danger remains HIGH. Deep, dangerous, and possibly unsurvivable human triggered avalanches are likely. It is crucial to tone it down, avoid all steep slopes, and consider the consequences of triggering an avalanche that breaks to the ground.




avalanche warning
THE AVALANCHE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH. THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE LOGAN...OGDEN...PARK CITY...SALT LAKE...PROVO... MANTI-SKYLINE SOUTH TO I-70...THE WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST ON ALL ASPECTS AND ELEVATIONS. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE OCCURRING. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
special announcement

Our collective prayers, thoughts, and condolences go out to the friends and family of Clinton Conover who was tragically killed in an avalanche accident last Sunday.

Our preliminary investigation is found here.

current conditions

Under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures are tropical, in the high 30's and low 40's. Southwest winds are generally light, blowing just 5-15 mph along the Skyline Summit. It's been an active week on the Skyline and we've stacked up about 2' feet of snow with 2" of water. Up high, it's dense and spongy, but lose some elevation and you'll find the snow has taken a hard hit and it's quite damp, even close to saturated at lower elevations.

Recent trip reports can be found here.

Inside the soy milk jug.

The region got pasted this week and the Skyline is wet and white.

recent activity

Avalanches everywhere. All aspects, elevations, and unusual locations... along with a crazy tale early in the week from the Skyline Mine.

Steve scans a large natural slide that occurred earlier in the week in Seeley Canyon. It jumped a low angle bench, broke timber, and took no prisoners.

Avalanche Problem 1
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

We've got it all.... weak snowpack structure, lots of water and snow from the recent storm cycle, and the biggest red flag.... lots of deep, scary avalanches! It's a dangerous setup on the Skyline because the snow will feel strong and stable under our sled, skis, or board. However, we've gotta think not only about the snow we're riding in, but also the snow we're riding on, and it's a sketchy setup. Early season snow grew weak and sugary over time and now we have a cohesive piece of snow resting on top. Strong snow on weak snow.... no es bueno!.

Today's rising temperatures will complicate matters and I expect the snowpack won't be too psyched to go through yet another rapid change. The snowpack needs some time to heal and we need to exercise some patience. For the next couple of days you need to avoid being on or under steep slopes, especially those that face the north half of the compass.

Click here for a quick viddy describing the setup.

Avalanche Problem 2
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Road lappers please take note-

Low elevation snow is wet and nearly saturated in some locations and it won't take a large slide to stack up deep piles of cement-like snow, especially if it's channeled into a terrain trap like a gully or stream bed. Just 'cause you can see the car doesn't mean it's safe. Carefully assess your terrain choices and think about the consequences of triggering even a small slide.

Avalanche Problem 3
type aspect/elevation characteristics
LIKELIHOOD
LIKELY
UNLIKELY
SIZE
LARGE
SMALL
TREND
INCREASING DANGER
SAME
DECREASING DANGER
over the next 24 hours
description

Strong west and southwest winds have made cornices quite large and they're unpredictable, breaking back further than you might expect. Once triggered, a cornice could easily break into weaker layers of snow as it crashes to the slope below, creating a slide that quickly gets out of hand..

weather

High pressure keeps storminess north of the region today and tonight and we should see some brief breaks in the cloudiness. Southwest winds remain reasonable, blowing 10-20 mph along the high ridges. Temperatures soar into the mid and upper 40's and dip into the low 30's overnight. The next storm system moves through quickly on Sunday with light snow and cooler temperatures expected. A break in the action for Monday/Tuesday, and then more storminess for the rest of week.

general announcements

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The information in this advisory is from the US Forest Service which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

This advisory will be updated by 7:00 AM Saturday, February 22nd, 2014 or sooner if conditions warrant.